St. Truiden 1-1 AS Eupen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as St. Truiden face AS Eupen.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
St. Truiden and AS Eupen meet at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 13). This fixture gets under way on Friday 3 November 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
St. Truiden have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
St. Truiden at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — St. Truiden are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
AS Eupen's record over their last 10 games: 3W 0D 7L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, AS Eupen have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Jan 2023, ended St. Truiden 2–0 AS Eupen — a St. Truiden win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
St. Truiden half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
AS Eupen half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 44% versus AS Eupen 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 44% | AS Eupen 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.54 xG and AS Eupen 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.763 / defence 1.044 | AS Eupen attack 0.948 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.671 / away 1.284. St. Truiden's attack rating of 0.763 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.54. AS Eupen's defence rating of 1.211 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing St. Truiden's projected output up. Data: built from St. Truiden's last 46 games and AS Eupen's last 46.
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 42% | Draw 28% | AS Eupen 30%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.37 | Draw 3.59 | AS Eupen 3.34. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St. Truiden at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St. Truiden if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (St. Truiden's last 10 home games and AS Eupen's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: St. Truiden 30% (last 10 home games) | AS Eupen 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs AS Eupen | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 13 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 3 November 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 42% | Draw 28% | AS Eupen 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG St. Truiden 1.54 / AS Eupen 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.763 / def 1.044 | AS Eupen attack 0.948 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.671 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.27
AS Eupen xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ St. Truiden vs AS Eupen FAQs
What time does St. Truiden vs AS Eupen kick off?
St. Truiden vs AS Eupen kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 3 November 2023 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs AS Eupen?
St. Truiden 1 - 1 AS Eupen.
Where is St. Truiden vs AS Eupen being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs AS Eupen part of?
St. Truiden vs AS Eupen is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 13) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs AS Eupen?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 42% chance of winning, AS Eupen a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs AS Eupen?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both St. Truiden and AS Eupen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will St. Truiden vs AS Eupen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 0.76x the league average against AS Eupen's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AS Eupen's attack (0.95x) against St. Truiden's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from St. Truiden's last 46 games and AS Eupen's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
42%
2.37
28%
3.59
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.81
1.27
AS Eupen xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
12%
8.44
6%
15.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.8 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ St. Truiden vs AS Eupen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs AS Eupen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and AS Eupen expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.27 for AS Eupen, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs AS Eupen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, St. Truiden have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 15W 13D 18L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
AS Eupen's form line: 11W 8D 27L from 46 games, 0.89 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for St. Truiden against 0.89 for AS Eupen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, St. Truiden have posted 1.35 PPG from their last 23 home games (9W 4D 10L).
On the road, AS Eupen have gone 5W 3D 15L from their last 23 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
St. Truiden are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; AS Eupen are on 1.22 scored and 2.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AS Eupen in 61%.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
AS Eupen
Blended
St. Truiden (Home) vs AS Eupen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
St. Truiden
Blended
AS Eupen
Blended
❓ St. Truiden vs AS Eupen Form FAQs
What form are St. Truiden and AS Eupen in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 15W 13D 18L in their last 46 games (1.26 PPG), while AS Eupen have gone 11W 8D 27L in their last 46 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or AS Eupen away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.35 PPG; AS Eupen away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 10 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St. Truiden have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against AS Eupen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
St. Truiden
1
Draws
3
AS Eupen
Recent Meetings
❓ St. Truiden vs AS Eupen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and AS Eupen?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, St. Truiden have won 2, AS Eupen have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and AS Eupen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 March 2024: AS Eupen 1-0 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and AS Eupen?
AS Eupen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 35%, AS Eupen 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (St. Truiden) and 61% (AS Eupen).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden have failed to score in 44% of games; AS Eupen in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / AS Eupen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ St. Truiden vs AS Eupen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in St. Truiden and AS Eupen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 56% of AS Eupen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are St. Truiden and AS Eupen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of St. Truiden's recent games and 61% of AS Eupen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and AS Eupen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 70% of AS Eupen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St. Truiden and AS Eupen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden and AS Eupen finished level at 1-1 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.54 xG and AS Eupen 1.27 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.76 / defence 1.04 against AS Eupen attack 0.95 / defence 1.21, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 42% | Draw 28% | AS Eupen 30%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 44%, AS Eupen 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
AS Eupen's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.26 PPG, AS Eupen 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AS Eupen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.