SK Beveren 1-0 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Anderlecht at 44%, yet in-form SK Beveren provide a compelling counter-argument — this SK Beveren vs Anderlecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Anderlecht make the trip to Freethiel Stadion to face SK Beveren in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SK Beveren have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SK Beveren have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SK Beveren's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at Freethiel Stadion this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Freethiel Stadion.
Anderlecht (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Anderlecht have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Anderlecht's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in SK Beveren's favour (2.50 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
SK Beveren goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Anderlecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SK Beveren 58% and Anderlecht 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 64% | Anderlecht 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.30 xG and Anderlecht 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 0.864 / defence 1.150 | Anderlecht attack 0.976 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.482. Data: 1 SK Beveren games / 31 Anderlecht games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 28% | Draw 28% | Anderlecht 44%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Anderlecht 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Anderlecht at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SK Beveren (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Anderlecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: SK Beveren 40% | Anderlecht 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Freethiel Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 28% | Draw 28% | Anderlecht 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG SK Beveren 1.30 / Anderlecht 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 0.864 / def 1.150 | Anderlecht attack 0.976 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.482 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Anderlecht xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Anderlecht kick off?
SK Beveren vs Anderlecht kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 16 August 2026 at Freethiel Stadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Anderlecht?
SK Beveren 1 - 0 Anderlecht.
Where is SK Beveren vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Freethiel Stadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Anderlecht part of?
SK Beveren vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 28% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both SK Beveren and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Anderlecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SK Beveren and Anderlecht in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Anderlecht (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SK Beveren's attack rating (0.86) and Anderlecht's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Anderlecht's attack (0.98x) against SK Beveren's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
The sample (1/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
28%
3.55
28%
3.61
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.96
1.66
Anderlecht xG
3.55
28%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
19%
5.28
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
5%
18.72
12%
8.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.66 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 33 outings, SK Beveren have picked up 2.67 PPG on a 28W 4D 1L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SK Beveren, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Anderlecht's form line: 12W 8D 13L from 33 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Anderlecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 1.34 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Anderlecht.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SK Beveren have posted 2.88 PPG from 16 outings (15W 1D 0L).
On the road, Anderlecht have gone 3W 4D 9L from 16 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Anderlecht's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SK Beveren are averaging 2.27 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.45 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Anderlecht in 64%.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Early Season
Anderlecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 28W 4D 1L in their last 33 games (2.67 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 12W 8D 13L in their last 33 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Anderlecht away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.88 PPG; Anderlecht away: 0.81 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
SK Beveren
0
Draws
0
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Anderlecht?
From 1 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 1, Anderlecht have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when SK Beveren 1-0 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Anderlecht?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 44%, Anderlecht 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SK Beveren) and 56% (Anderlecht).
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Anderlecht in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Anderlecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 56% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Beveren vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of SK Beveren's recent games and 56% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SK Beveren and Anderlecht tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SK Beveren defy the odds to beat Anderlecht 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat Anderlecht 1-0 at Freethiel Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.30 xG and Anderlecht 1.66 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Anderlecht landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Anderlecht attack 0.98 / defence 1.05, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 28% | Draw 28% | Anderlecht 44%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual SK Beveren win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 64%, Anderlecht 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Anderlecht's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 2.67 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. SK Beveren (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.