Seraing United 0-4 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Seraing United vs Union St. Gilloise encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Seraing United host Union St. Gilloise at Stade du Pairay in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 18 January 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Seraing United — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Seraing United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Seraing United's home record at Stade du Pairay: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Seraing United are significantly better at Stade du Pairay than their overall form suggests.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Union St. Gilloise have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Union St. Gilloise have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Union St. Gilloise's 2.50 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Seraing United's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Seraing United have won 0, Union St. Gilloise 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 2–4 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Seraing United in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Union St. Gilloise in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Seraing United 43% versus Union St. Gilloise 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Seraing United 62% | Union St. Gilloise 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seraing United 0.91 xG and Union St. Gilloise 2.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seraing United attack 0.820 / defence 1.269 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.237 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.534. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.237 — the away xG of 2.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 21 Seraing United games / 21 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Seraing United 12% | Draw 17% | Union St. Gilloise 71%. Fair-value odds: Seraing United 8.33 | Draw 5.88 | Union St. Gilloise 1.41. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (71%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Seraing United 40% | Union St. Gilloise 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seraing United vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade du Pairay • Kick-off: Tuesday 18 Jan 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seraing United 12% | Draw 17% | Union St. Gilloise 71% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 54% | xG Seraing United 0.91 / Union St. Gilloise 2.41 • Poisson strength factors: Seraing United attack 0.820 / def 1.269 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.237 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.534 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Seraing United xG
Expected Goals
2.41
Union St. Gilloise xG
54%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seraing United vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Seraing United vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 18 January 2022 at Stade du Pairay.
What was the final score in Seraing United vs Union St. Gilloise?
Seraing United 0 - 4 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Seraing United vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pairay.
What competition is Seraing United vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Seraing United vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Seraing United vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Seraing United a 12% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 71% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Seraing United vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Seraing United and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Seraing United vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seraing United and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (1 meetings): Seraing United 0W | Draws 0 | Union St. Gilloise 1W.
What form are Seraing United and Union St. Gilloise in?
Seraing United (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Seraing United's attack rating (0.82) and Union St. Gilloise's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Seraing United's defence, projects 2.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
12%
8.12
17%
5.84
71%
1.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Seraing United xG
Total xG
3.31
2.41
Union St. Gilloise xG
8.12
12%
Home win
5.84
17%
Draw
1.42
71%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
9%
11.10
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
1%
90.10
29%
3.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 8.8 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.5 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seraing United vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Seraing United and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Seraing United and 2.41 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Seraing United vs Union St. Gilloise?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Seraing United's recent record stands at 6W 1D 14L from 21 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Seraing United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 15W 2D 4L across 21 games — 2.24 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 1.34 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Seraing United heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Seraing United have managed 4W 1D 5L from 10 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.90 PPG overall — Seraing United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 8W 1D 1L across 10 trips, a 2.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Seraing United are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.38 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seraing United
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Seraing United and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Seraing United have gone 6W 1D 14L in their last 21 games (0.90 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 15W 2D 4L in their last 21 (2.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Seraing United at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Seraing United at home: 1.30 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Seraing United or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Seraing United have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Seraing United and Union St. Gilloise runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Union St. Gilloise go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jan 2022, when Union St. Gilloise won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Seraing United's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Seraing United
0
Draws
4
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seraing United and Union St. Gilloise?
From 4 meetings on record, Seraing United have won 0, Union St. Gilloise have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Seraing United and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2023, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Seraing United.
Who has won more matches between Seraing United and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Seraing United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Seraing United 40%, Union St. Gilloise 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Seraing United and 70% for Union St. Gilloise. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise in 40%; Seraing United have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seraing United home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Seraing United play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Seraing United's recent matches and 60% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Seraing United vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Seraing United's matches and 70% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Seraing United and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Seraing United have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union St. Gilloise run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Seraing United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Seraing United 0-4 at Stade du Pairay, Regular Season - 22, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seraing United 0.91 xG and Union St. Gilloise 2.41 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Seraing United fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 2.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seraing United attack 0.82 / defence 1.27 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.24 / defence 0.92, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Seraing United 12% | Draw 17% | Union St. Gilloise 71%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Seraing United 62%, Union St. Gilloise 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Seraing United's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 0.90. That form edge translated into the three points. Seraing United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.70 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.