OH Leuven 0-0 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as OH Leuven face Union St. Gilloise.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 22 as OH Leuven welcome Union St. Gilloise to Den Dreef. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 January 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, OH Leuven have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, OH Leuven have posted 2W 3D 5L at Den Dreef — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union St. Gilloise stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Union St. Gilloise are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. OH Leuven register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Union St. Gilloise in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Union St. Gilloise have the better historical record — 7 wins from 9 previous contests against 1 for OH Leuven.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2025, ended 0–5 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Union St. Gilloise have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
OH Leuven in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OH Leuven 48% versus Union St. Gilloise 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (OH Leuven 34% | Union St. Gilloise 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 0.98 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.889 / defence 1.003 | Union St. Gilloise attack 0.964 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.212. Data: 51 OH Leuven games / 51 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 31% | Draw 29% | Union St. Gilloise 40%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Union St. Gilloise 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: OH Leuven 60% | Union St. Gilloise 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Den Dreef • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 31% | Draw 29% | Union St. Gilloise 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG OH Leuven 0.98 / Union St. Gilloise 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.889 / def 1.003 | Union St. Gilloise attack 0.964 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Union St. Gilloise xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at Den Dreef.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise?
OH Leuven 0 - 0 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Den Dreef.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 31% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (9 meetings): OH Leuven 1W | Draws 1 | Union St. Gilloise 7W.
What form are OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise in?
OH Leuven (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from OH Leuven's attack rating (0.89) and Union St. Gilloise's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus OH Leuven's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
31%
3.27
29%
3.41
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.16
1.17
Union St. Gilloise xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
9%
10.55
15%
6.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 13.6 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for OH Leuven and 1.17 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
OH Leuven's recent record stands at 14W 23D 24L from 61 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for OH Leuven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 37W 17D 7L across 61 games — 2.10 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 1.03 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OH Leuven heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, OH Leuven have managed 9W 13D 8L from 30 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 14W 11D 5L across 30 trips, a 1.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
OH Leuven are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.77 scored and 0.66 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 14W 23D 24L in their last 61 games (1.07 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 37W 17D 7L in their last 61 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.33 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 1.77 PPG.
Have OH Leuven or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
OH Leuven have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Aug 2025, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OH Leuven's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
OH Leuven
2
Draws
7
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, OH Leuven have won 1, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when OH Leuven 0-0 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 53%, Union St. Gilloise 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (OH Leuven) and 40% (Union St. Gilloise).
On the defensive side: OH Leuven keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Union St. Gilloise in 37%; OH Leuven have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OH Leuven play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of OH Leuven's recent matches and 53% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of OH Leuven's recent games and 40% of Union St. Gilloise's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
OH Leuven have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at OH Leuven's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise finished level at 0-0 at Den Dreef, Regular Season - 22, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 0.98 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.17 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. OH Leuven fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Union St. Gilloise landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.89 / defence 1.00 against Union St. Gilloise attack 0.96 / defence 0.82, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 31% | Draw 29% | Union St. Gilloise 40%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 34%, Union St. Gilloise 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. OH Leuven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.