OH Leuven vs Kortrijk – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates OH Leuven at 46%, yet in-form Kortrijk provide a compelling counter-argument — this OH Leuven vs Kortrijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
OH Leuven and Kortrijk meet at Den Dreef in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
OH Leuven have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. OH Leuven have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OH Leuven's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 games at Den Dreef this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Kortrijk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Kortrijk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kortrijk away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Kortrijk arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — OH Leuven have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Kortrijk in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for OH Leuven, 3 for Kortrijk and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2025, ended 0–2 with Kortrijk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
OH Leuven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Kortrijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OH Leuven 47% versus Kortrijk 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 47% | Kortrijk 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.56 xG and Kortrijk 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.764 / defence 1.149 | Kortrijk attack 0.731 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.397. OH Leuven's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 1.56 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Kortrijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing OH Leuven's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 OH Leuven games / 3 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 46% | Draw 25% | Kortrijk 29%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Kortrijk 3.45. OH Leuven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Form shows strong BTTS No rates for both sides but Poisson BTTS probability is 55% — current-season attack strengths are higher than recent results suggest.
Poisson rates OH Leuven as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kortrijk (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on OH Leuven if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: OH Leuven 30% | Kortrijk 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Den Dreef • Kick-off: Friday 27 Nov 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 46% | Draw 25% | Kortrijk 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG OH Leuven 1.56 / Kortrijk 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.764 / def 1.149 | Kortrijk attack 0.731 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: OH Leuven (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Kortrijk xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OH Leuven vs Kortrijk kick off?
OH Leuven vs Kortrijk is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Friday 27 November 2026 at Den Dreef.
Where is OH Leuven vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Den Dreef.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Kortrijk part of?
OH Leuven vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 46% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making OH Leuven the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both OH Leuven and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will OH Leuven vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Kortrijk?
Record (8 meetings): OH Leuven 3W | Draws 2 | Kortrijk 3W.
What form are OH Leuven and Kortrijk in?
OH Leuven (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Kortrijk (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from OH Leuven's attack rating (0.76) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kortrijk's attack (0.73x) against OH Leuven's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 33/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OH Leuven Win
46%
2.16
25%
3.99
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.74
1.17
Kortrijk xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
14%
6.98
6%
16.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.9 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for OH Leuven and 1.17 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 34 outings, OH Leuven have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 8W 8D 18L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for OH Leuven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kortrijk's form line: 20W 4D 10L from 34 games, 1.88 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Kortrijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Kortrijk are the form team by 0.94 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against OH Leuven.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, OH Leuven have posted 0.94 PPG from 16 outings (4W 3D 9L).
On the road, Kortrijk have gone 6W 3D 7L from 16 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kortrijk's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
OH Leuven are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.68 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Early Season
Kortrijk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OH Leuven and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 8W 8D 18L in their last 34 games (0.94 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 20W 4D 10L in their last 34 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Kortrijk away?
Kortrijk's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 0.94 PPG; Kortrijk away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OH Leuven won 3-0 on 1 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OH Leuven have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
OH Leuven
2
Draws
3
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Kortrijk?
From 8 meetings on record, OH Leuven have won 3, Kortrijk have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Kortrijk 2-0 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 38%, Kortrijk 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (OH Leuven) and 50% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: OH Leuven have failed to score in 44% of games; Kortrijk in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OH Leuven play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of OH Leuven's recent matches and 50% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OH Leuven vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of OH Leuven's recent games and 50% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OH Leuven and Kortrijk tend to score early?
OH Leuven have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.