OH Leuven 3-2 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this OH Leuven vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
OH Leuven and Charleroi meet at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 September 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
OH Leuven (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. OH Leuven have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OH Leuven's home record at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — OH Leuven are significantly better at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
OH Leuven — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Charleroi — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OH Leuven 66% versus Charleroi 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (OH Leuven 63% | Charleroi 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.25 xG and Charleroi 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.947 / defence 0.999 | Charleroi attack 0.986 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.410. Data: 41 OH Leuven games / 41 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 34% | Draw 26% | Charleroi 40%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Charleroi 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: OH Leuven 50% | Charleroi 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: King Power at Den Dreef Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 34% | Draw 26% | Charleroi 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG OH Leuven 1.25 / Charleroi 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.947 / def 0.999 | Charleroi attack 0.986 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Charleroi xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OH Leuven vs Charleroi kick off?
OH Leuven vs Charleroi kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
OH Leuven 3 - 2 Charleroi.
Where is OH Leuven vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Charleroi part of?
OH Leuven vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 34% chance of winning, Charleroi a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both OH Leuven and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will OH Leuven vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Charleroi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are OH Leuven and Charleroi in?
OH Leuven (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Charleroi (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates OH Leuven's attack at 0.95x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (0.99x) against OH Leuven's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
34%
2.97
26%
3.83
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.63
1.39
Charleroi xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
8%
11.91
12%
8.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.0 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.4 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for OH Leuven and 1.39 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
OH Leuven come into this having played 41 games, going 14W 12D 15L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for OH Leuven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Charleroi sit at 1.54 PPG from 41 outings (19W 6D 16L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for OH Leuven against 1.54 for Charleroi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
OH Leuven's home form reads 9W 4D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Charleroi have taken 1.60 points per game from 20 outings (10W 2D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
OH Leuven are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.56 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OH Leuven have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Early Season
Charleroi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OH Leuven and Charleroi in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 14W 12D 15L in their last 41 games (1.32 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 19W 6D 16L in their last 41 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Charleroi away?
Charleroi's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.55 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 19 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OH Leuven have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
OH Leuven
5
Draws
2
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, OH Leuven have won 3, Charleroi have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Charleroi 1-1 OH Leuven.
Who has won more matches between OH Leuven and Charleroi?
OH Leuven have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 60%, Charleroi 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for OH Leuven and 75% for Charleroi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Charleroi in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OH Leuven play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of OH Leuven's games and 50% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OH Leuven vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of OH Leuven's matches and 75% of Charleroi's.
Do OH Leuven and Charleroi tend to score early?
OH Leuven have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as OH Leuven defy the odds to beat Charleroi 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OH Leuven beat Charleroi 3-2 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.25 xG and Charleroi 1.39 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. OH Leuven beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.95 / defence 1.00 against Charleroi attack 0.99 / defence 0.90, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 34% | Draw 26% | Charleroi 40%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual OH Leuven win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 63%, Charleroi 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Charleroi's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.32 PPG, Charleroi 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OH Leuven win broke the near-deadlock. OH Leuven (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm. Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.