Kortrijk 1-0 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kortrijk at 44%, yet in-form SK Beveren provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kortrijk vs SK Beveren fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SK Beveren make the trip to Guldensporen Stadion to face Kortrijk in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 17:15 UTC.
Current Form
Kortrijk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Kortrijk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kortrijk's home record at Guldensporen Stadion: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Kortrijk are significantly better at Guldensporen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
SK Beveren have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. SK Beveren have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SK Beveren's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. SK Beveren are 1.50 PPG clear of Kortrijk in recent Jupiler Pro League fixtures (2.10 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Kortrijk have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, SK Beveren in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Kortrijk 0W, SK Beveren 2W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with SK Beveren winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Kortrijk — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
SK Beveren — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 49% versus SK Beveren 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 51% | SK Beveren 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.47 xG and SK Beveren 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.611 / defence 1.529 | SK Beveren attack 0.622 / defence 1.498. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.232. Kortrijk's attack strength of 0.611 is below the league average — the 1.47 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SK Beveren bring a strong defensive rating of 1.498 — this is suppressing Kortrijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Kortrijk games / 6 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 44% | Draw 26% | SK Beveren 30%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | SK Beveren 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kortrijk are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SK Beveren (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kortrijk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.6 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kortrijk 60% | SK Beveren 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs SK Beveren | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Guldensporen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 44% | Draw 26% | SK Beveren 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Kortrijk 1.47 / SK Beveren 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.611 / def 1.529 | SK Beveren attack 0.622 / def 1.498 | league avg home 1.608 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.17
SK Beveren xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs SK Beveren kick off?
Kortrijk vs SK Beveren kicked off at 17:15 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Guldensporen Stadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs SK Beveren?
Kortrijk 1 - 0 SK Beveren.
Where is Kortrijk vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporen Stadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs SK Beveren part of?
Kortrijk vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 44% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Kortrijk and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and SK Beveren?
Record (2 meetings): Kortrijk 0W | Draws 0 | SK Beveren 2W.
What form are Kortrijk and SK Beveren in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. SK Beveren (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kortrijk's attacking strength (0.61x league average) is weighed against SK Beveren's defensive record (1.50x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — SK Beveren's attack (0.62x) against Kortrijk's defence (1.53x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
44%
2.27
26%
3.88
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.64
1.17
SK Beveren xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
14%
7.32
7%
14.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.3 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.17 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, Kortrijk have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 20W 4D 13L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Kortrijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SK Beveren's form line: 30W 4D 3L from 37 games, 2.54 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for SK Beveren, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kortrijk.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Kortrijk have posted 2.22 PPG from 18 outings (13W 1D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Kortrijk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 12W 3D 3L from 18 away games — 2.17 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Kortrijk are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 2.14 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Early Season
SK Beveren
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 20W 4D 13L in their last 37 games (1.73 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 30W 4D 3L in their last 37 (2.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or SK Beveren away?
Kortrijk's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 2.22 PPG; SK Beveren away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Kortrijk or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kortrijk have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Challenger Pro League, Jupiler Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kortrijk have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SK Beveren — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Kortrijk
0
Draws
2
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and SK Beveren?
From 3 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 1, SK Beveren have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Kortrijk 1-0 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 56%, SK Beveren 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Kortrijk and 83% for SK Beveren. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kortrijk keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play SK Beveren?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Kortrijk's games and 67% of SK Beveren's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kortrijk vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Kortrijk's matches and 83% of SK Beveren's.
Do Kortrijk and SK Beveren tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kortrijk edge out SK Beveren 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kortrijk beat SK Beveren 1-0 at Guldensporen Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.47 xG and SK Beveren 1.17 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SK Beveren landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.61 / defence 1.53 against SK Beveren attack 0.62 / defence 1.50, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 44% | Draw 26% | SK Beveren 30%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 51%, SK Beveren 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
SK Beveren's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 2.54 PPG against 1.73. Form was overturned, with Kortrijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kortrijk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. SK Beveren (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.28 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.