Kortrijk 1-1 Cercle Brugge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cercle Brugge at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kortrijk host Cercle Brugge at Guldensporenstadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 October 2022 at 17:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Kortrijk — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kortrijk's home record at Guldensporenstadion: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cercle Brugge stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cercle Brugge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cercle Brugge have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cercle Brugge — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Kortrijk have won 0, Cercle Brugge 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 0–2 with Cercle Brugge winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Kortrijk in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Cercle Brugge in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 54% versus Cercle Brugge 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 46% | Cercle Brugge 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.18 xG and Cercle Brugge 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.659 / defence 1.278 | Cercle Brugge attack 0.970 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.575 / away 1.445. Kortrijk's attack strength of 0.659 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Kortrijk games / 48 Cercle Brugge games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 25% | Draw 23% | Cercle Brugge 52%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 4.00 | Draw 4.35 | Cercle Brugge 1.92. Cercle Brugge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cercle Brugge at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cercle Brugge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Kortrijk 50% | Cercle Brugge 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 25% | Draw 23% | Cercle Brugge 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Kortrijk 1.18 / Cercle Brugge 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.659 / def 1.278 | Cercle Brugge attack 0.970 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.575 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: Cercle Brugge (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Cercle Brugge xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge kick off?
Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge?
Kortrijk 1 - 1 Cercle Brugge.
Where is Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge part of?
Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 25% chance of winning, Cercle Brugge a 52% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cercle Brugge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Kortrijk and Cercle Brugge will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Cercle Brugge?
Record (2 meetings): Kortrijk 0W | Draws 0 | Cercle Brugge 2W.
What form are Kortrijk and Cercle Brugge in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Cercle Brugge (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kortrijk's attack at 0.66x the league average against Cercle Brugge's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cercle Brugge's attack versus Kortrijk's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cercle Brugge Win
25%
3.99
23%
4.31
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.97
1.79
Cercle Brugge xG
3.99
25%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
17%
6.00
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
4%
23.91
16%
6.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Cercle Brugge expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.79 for Cercle Brugge, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Kortrijk have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 12W 12D 24L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cercle Brugge's form line: 17W 12D 19L from 48 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Cercle Brugge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kortrijk on 1.00 PPG, Cercle Brugge on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Kortrijk have posted 0.96 PPG from 24 outings (6W 5D 13L).
On the road, Cercle Brugge have gone 8W 5D 11L from 24 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Kortrijk are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Cercle Brugge are on 1.44 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Blended
Cercle Brugge
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and Cercle Brugge in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 12W 12D 24L in their last 48 games (1.00 PPG), while Cercle Brugge have gone 17W 12D 19L in their last 48 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Cercle Brugge away?
Cercle Brugge's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 0.96 PPG; Cercle Brugge away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2023, when Cercle Brugge won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kortrijk's record when hosting Cercle Brugge specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Kortrijk
3
Draws
4
Cercle Brugge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Cercle Brugge?
From 10 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 3, Cercle Brugge have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Cercle Brugge last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Cercle Brugge 0-2 Kortrijk.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and Cercle Brugge?
Cercle Brugge have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Cercle Brugge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 50%, Cercle Brugge 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Kortrijk) and 54% (Cercle Brugge).
On the defensive side: Kortrijk have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Cercle Brugge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play Cercle Brugge?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Kortrijk's games and 62% of Cercle Brugge's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Kortrijk's recent games and 54% of Cercle Brugge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kortrijk and Cercle Brugge tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cercle Brugge in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kortrijk and Cercle Brugge share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kortrijk and Cercle Brugge finished level at 1-1 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.18 xG and Cercle Brugge 1.79 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.66 / defence 1.28 against Cercle Brugge attack 0.97 / defence 1.14, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 25% | Draw 23% | Cercle Brugge 52%, with Cercle Brugge to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 46%, Cercle Brugge 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Cercle Brugge's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kortrijk 1.00 PPG, Cercle Brugge 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.