Gent 0-0 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gent at 37%, yet in-form Union St. Gilloise provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gent vs Union St. Gilloise fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Planet Group Arena plays host to Gent versus Union St. Gilloise in Jupiler Pro League, Championship Group - 39. Kick-off: Thursday 21 May 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gent have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Gent's home record at Planet Group Arena: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Union St. Gilloise (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Union St. Gilloise are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Union St. Gilloise hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Union St. Gilloise have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Gent goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (78 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Union St. Gilloise goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (78 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gent 50% versus Union St. Gilloise 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gent 50% | Union St. Gilloise 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gent 1.22 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gent attack 1.138 / defence 0.954 | Union St. Gilloise attack 0.948 / defence 0.805. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.321. Data: 60 Gent games / 60 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gent 37% | Draw 28% | Union St. Gilloise 36%. Fair-value odds: Gent 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Union St. Gilloise 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gent as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Union St. Gilloise (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gent if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Gent 50% | Union St. Gilloise 60%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gent vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Group - 39 | Venue: Planet Group Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 21 May 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gent 37% | Draw 28% | Union St. Gilloise 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Gent 1.22 / Union St. Gilloise 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Gent attack 1.138 / def 0.954 | Union St. Gilloise attack 0.948 / def 0.805 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Gent (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Gent xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Union St. Gilloise xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gent vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Gent vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 21 May 2026 at Planet Group Arena.
What was the final score in Gent vs Union St. Gilloise?
Gent 0 - 0 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Gent vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Planet Group Arena.
What competition is Gent vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Gent vs Union St. Gilloise is a Championship Group - 39 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Gent vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Gent a 37% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gent vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Gent and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Gent vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (9 meetings): Gent 0W | Draws 5 | Union St. Gilloise 4W.
What form are Gent and Union St. Gilloise in?
Gent (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gent's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Union St. Gilloise's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — Union St. Gilloise's attack (0.95x) against Gent's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
37%
2.71
28%
3.63
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Gent xG
Total xG
2.41
1.19
Union St. Gilloise xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
11%
8.96
11%
9.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.7 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gent vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Gent and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Gent and 1.19 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Gent vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 78 outings, Gent have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 25W 23D 30L record — D-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Union St. Gilloise's form line: 48W 21D 9L from 78 games, 2.12 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Union St. Gilloise are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gent.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Gent have posted 1.38 PPG from 39 outings (15W 9D 15L).
On the road, Union St. Gilloise have gone 17W 15D 7L from 39 away games — 1.69 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union St. Gilloise's season.
Attack vs Defence
Gent are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.69 scored and 0.69 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 78 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gent
Current Season
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gent and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Gent have gone 25W 23D 30L in their last 78 games (1.26 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 48W 21D 9L in their last 78 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gent at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gent at home: 1.38 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Gent or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gent have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 21 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 0-3 on 5 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gent have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union St. Gilloise — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Gent
6
Draws
4
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Gent have won 0, Union St. Gilloise have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Gent and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Gent 0-0 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Gent and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gent 51%, Union St. Gilloise 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Gent) and 41% (Union St. Gilloise).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise in 38%; Union St. Gilloise in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gent home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gent play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Gent's recent matches and 51% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gent vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Gent's recent games and 41% of Union St. Gilloise's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gent and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Gent have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Gent's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gent and Union St. Gilloise finished level at 0-0 at Planet Group Arena, Championship Group - 39, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 1.22 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.19 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gent fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Union St. Gilloise landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.14 / defence 0.95 against Union St. Gilloise attack 0.95 / defence 0.81, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gent 37% | Draw 28% | Union St. Gilloise 36%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 50%, Union St. Gilloise 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gent's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Gent (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.