Gent vs Charleroi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Gent at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gent vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Charleroi travel to Planet Group Arena to take on Gent. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 March 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gent — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Gent have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gent's home record at Planet Group Arena: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Planet Group Arena.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Charleroi have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Charleroi — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 5 wins for Gent, 3 for Charleroi and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 3–2 with Gent winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Gent in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Charleroi in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gent 54% versus Charleroi 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gent 50% | Charleroi 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gent 1.42 xG and Charleroi 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gent attack 1.106 / defence 0.803 | Charleroi attack 1.060 / defence 0.791. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.397. Charleroi's defence strength of 0.791 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 33 Gent games / 34 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gent 42% | Draw 26% | Charleroi 32%. Fair-value odds: Gent 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Charleroi 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Gent dominate the H2H record, yet Charleroi are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Gent are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Charleroi (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gent offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Gent 40% | Charleroi 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gent vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Planet Group Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gent 42% | Draw 26% | Charleroi 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Gent 1.42 / Charleroi 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Gent attack 1.106 / def 0.803 | Charleroi attack 1.060 / def 0.791 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Gent (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Gent xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Charleroi xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gent vs Charleroi kick off?
Gent vs Charleroi is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 March 2027 at Planet Group Arena.
Where is Gent vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Planet Group Arena.
What competition is Gent vs Charleroi part of?
Gent vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Gent vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Gent a 42% chance of winning, Charleroi a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gent vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Gent and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Gent vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Charleroi?
Record (10 meetings): Gent 5W | Draws 2 | Charleroi 3W.
What form are Gent and Charleroi in?
Gent (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Charleroi (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gent's attack rating (1.11) and Charleroi's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Gent's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
42%
2.37
26%
3.82
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Gent xG
Total xG
2.60
1.19
Charleroi xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
13%
7.78
8%
13.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.4 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gent vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Gent and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Gent and 1.19 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Gent vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gent's recent record stands at 16W 13D 15L from 44 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Gent, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 18W 9D 17L across 44 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gent on 1.39 PPG, Charleroi on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gent have managed 9W 7D 6L from 22 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 10W 3D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Gent are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.34 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gent
Early Season
Charleroi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gent and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Gent have gone 16W 13D 15L in their last 44 games (1.39 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 18W 9D 17L in their last 44 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gent at home or Charleroi away?
Gent's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gent at home: 1.55 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gent and Charleroi runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gent have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2024, when Gent won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gent's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Gent
2
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Gent have won 5, Charleroi have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gent and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Charleroi 2-3 Gent.
Who has won more matches between Gent and Charleroi?
Gent have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gent 50%, Charleroi 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Gent) and 41% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Gent keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Charleroi in 32%; Gent have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gent home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gent play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gent's recent matches and 46% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gent vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Gent's recent games and 41% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gent and Charleroi tend to score early?
Gent have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.