Genk 2-1 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genk at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genk vs Union St. Gilloise fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Union St. Gilloise travel to Cegeka Arena to take on Genk. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 March 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Genk — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Cegeka Arena, Genk have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Cegeka Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union St. Gilloise stand at 9W 0D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Union St. Gilloise have gone 5W 5D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Genk at 2.40 PPG versus Union St. Gilloise's 2.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Genk have won 2, Union St. Gilloise 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 0–4 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Genk in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 51% versus Union St. Gilloise 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 52% | Union St. Gilloise 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.11 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.114 / defence 0.736 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.314 / defence 0.690. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.101. Union St. Gilloise's defence strength of 0.690 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.314 — the away xG of 1.06 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Genk's defence rating of 0.736 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Genk games / 59 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 34% | Draw 34% | Union St. Gilloise 32%. Fair-value odds: Genk 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | Union St. Gilloise 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Genk 40% | Union St. Gilloise 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Mar 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 34% | Draw 34% | Union St. Gilloise 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Genk 1.11 / Union St. Gilloise 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.114 / def 0.736 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.314 / def 0.690 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Union St. Gilloise xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Genk vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 15 March 2025 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Genk 2 - 1 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Genk vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Genk vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 34% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Genk and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (5 meetings): Genk 2W | Draws 0 | Union St. Gilloise 3W.
What form are Genk and Union St. Gilloise in?
Genk (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Genk's attack at 1.11x the league average against Union St. Gilloise's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Genk's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
34%
2.93
34%
2.95
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Genk xG
Total xG
2.17
1.06
Union St. Gilloise xG
2.93
34%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
12%
8.49
11%
9.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 12.1 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Genk and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Genk and 1.06 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 69 outings, Genk have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 35W 17D 17L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Union St. Gilloise's form line: 40W 19D 10L from 69 games, 2.01 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genk on 1.77 PPG, Union St. Gilloise on 2.01. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Genk have posted 2.12 PPG from 34 outings (21W 9D 4L).
On the road, Union St. Gilloise have gone 17W 12D 5L from 34 away games — 1.85 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Genk are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.86 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Current Season
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 35W 17D 17L in their last 69 games (1.77 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 40W 19D 10L in their last 69 (2.01 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Genk's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 2.12 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 1.85 PPG.
Have Genk or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genk have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Union St. Gilloise have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2024, when Union St. Gilloise won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Genk's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Genk
0
Draws
7
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Genk have won 3, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 41%, Union St. Gilloise 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Genk) and 50% (Union St. Gilloise).
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Union St. Gilloise in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Genk's recent matches and 56% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genk vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Genk's recent games and 50% of Union St. Gilloise's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genk and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genk edge out Union St. Gilloise 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Union St. Gilloise 2-1 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.11 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.06 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Genk beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.11 / defence 0.74 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.31 / defence 0.69, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 34% | Draw 34% | Union St. Gilloise 32%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 52%, Union St. Gilloise 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genk 1.77 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 2.01 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.