Genk 3-1 RWDM – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genk at 74% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genk vs RWDM encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Genk and RWDM meet at Cegeka Arena in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 26). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Genk have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Genk have gone 4W 5D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
RWDM's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, RWDM have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Genk's favour (1.30 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Genk's last 10 home games and RWDM's last 10 away games) — Genk have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, RWDM in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Genk edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 29 Jul 2023, ended Genk 4–0 RWDM — a Genk win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Genk half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
RWDM half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Genk 63% and RWDM 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 61% | RWDM 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 2.67 xG and RWDM 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.189 / defence 0.869 | RWDM attack 0.870 / defence 1.395. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.234. RWDM's defence rating of 1.395 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Genk's projected output up. Data: built from Genk's last 59 games and RWDM's last 25.
Result probabilities: Genk 74% | Draw 16% | RWDM 10%. Fair-value odds: Genk 1.35 | Draw 6.41 | RWDM 9.55. The model has a clear lean to Genk (74%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Genk as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.60 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Genk's last 10 home games and RWDM's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Genk 60% (last 10 home games) | RWDM 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs RWDM | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 26 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 74% | Draw 16% | RWDM 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Genk 2.67 / RWDM 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.189 / def 0.869 | RWDM attack 0.870 / def 1.395 | league avg home 1.609 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Genk (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.67
Genk xG
Expected Goals
0.93
RWDM xG
57%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Genk vs RWDM FAQs
What time does Genk vs RWDM kick off?
Genk vs RWDM kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs RWDM?
Genk 3 - 1 RWDM.
Where is Genk vs RWDM being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs RWDM part of?
Genk vs RWDM is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 26) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs RWDM?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 74% chance of winning, RWDM a 10% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs RWDM?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Genk and RWDM will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Genk vs RWDM have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Genk's attack rating (1.19) and RWDM's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 2.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — RWDM's attack (0.87x) against Genk's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from Genk's last 59 games and RWDM's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 3-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
74%
1.35
16%
6.41
10%
9.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
3 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.67
Genk xG
Total xG
3.60
0.93
RWDM xG
1.35
74%
Home win
6.41
16%
Draw
9.55
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
7%
14.43
Win to Nil
29%
3.44
1%
137.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Genk vs RWDM Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs RWDM?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Genk and RWDM expected to score?
The model projects 2.67 expected goals for Genk and 0.93 for RWDM, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs RWDM?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Genk have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 28W 17D 12L record — D-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
RWDM's form line: 26W 13D 18L from 57 games, 1.60 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.77 PPG for Genk against 1.60 for RWDM. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Genk have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 28 home games (16W 8D 4L).
On the road, RWDM have gone 11W 5D 12L from their last 28 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genk are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; RWDM are on 1.61 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; RWDM in 63%.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Blended
RWDM
Blended
Genk (Home) vs RWDM (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Genk
Blended
RWDM
Blended
❓ Genk vs RWDM Form FAQs
What form are Genk and RWDM in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 28W 17D 12L in their last 57 games (1.77 PPG), while RWDM have gone 26W 13D 18L in their last 57 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or RWDM away?
Genk's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 2.00 PPG; RWDM away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Genk
0
Draws
0
RWDM
Recent Meetings
❓ Genk vs RWDM H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and RWDM?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Genk have won 2, RWDM have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Genk and RWDM last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 February 2024: Genk 3-1 RWDM.
Who has won more matches between Genk and RWDM?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
RWDM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 61% for Genk, 71% for RWDM — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Genk and 71% for RWDM. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / RWDM away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Genk vs RWDM Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Genk and RWDM matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Genk's games and 71% of RWDM's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Genk and RWDM matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Genk's matches and 71% of RWDM's.
Do Genk and RWDM matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Genk's recent matches and 64% of RWDM's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genk cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over RWDM.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat RWDM 3-1 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 2.67 xG and RWDM 0.93 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.19 / defence 0.87 against RWDM attack 0.87 / defence 1.40, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 74% | Draw 16% | RWDM 10%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 61%, RWDM 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
RWDM's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genk 1.77 PPG, RWDM 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. RWDM (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.