Genk 4-0 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates OH Leuven at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genk vs OH Leuven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Luminus Arena plays host to Genk versus OH Leuven in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 14 August 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Genk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games (1.33 PPG). Last five: D L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Genk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OH Leuven (all games): 0W 3D 0L across 3 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. OH Leuven have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.33 for Genk, 1.00 for OH Leuven — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Genk register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, OH Leuven in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Genk — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
OH Leuven — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Genk 100% and OH Leuven 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Genk 67% | OH Leuven 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.28 xG and OH Leuven 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.211 / defence 1.374 | OH Leuven attack 0.788 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 0.924 / away 1.587. Data: 3 Genk games / 3 OH Leuven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 26% | Draw 29% | OH Leuven 45%. Fair-value odds: Genk 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | OH Leuven 2.22. OH Leuven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OH Leuven at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on OH Leuven if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Genk 100% | OH Leuven 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Luminus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 26% | Draw 29% | OH Leuven 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Genk 1.28 / OH Leuven 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.211 / def 1.374 | OH Leuven attack 0.788 / def 1.148 | league avg home 0.924 / away 1.587 • Poisson stance: OH Leuven (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.72
OH Leuven xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs OH Leuven kick off?
Genk vs OH Leuven kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Luminus Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs OH Leuven?
Genk 4 - 0 OH Leuven.
Where is Genk vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Luminus Arena.
What competition is Genk vs OH Leuven part of?
Genk vs OH Leuven is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 26% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making OH Leuven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Genk and OH Leuven will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and OH Leuven?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Genk and OH Leuven in?
Genk (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W. OH Leuven (all comps): 0W-3D-0L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Genk's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against OH Leuven's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — OH Leuven's attack (0.79x) against Genk's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
OH Leuven Win
26%
3.86
29%
3.42
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Genk xG
Total xG
3.00
1.72
OH Leuven xG
3.86
26%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
18%
5.57
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
5%
21.48
12%
8.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Genk and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Genk and 1.72 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs OH Leuven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 3 outings, Genk have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 1W 1D 1L record — D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Genk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
OH Leuven's form line: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-D-D. It's still early in the season for OH Leuven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Genk against 1.00 for OH Leuven. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genk are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Genk's scoring rate against OH Leuven's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Genk have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; OH Leuven in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Early Season
OH Leuven
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 0W 3D 0L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genk have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against OH Leuven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Genk
1
Draws
2
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and OH Leuven?
From 10 meetings on record, Genk have won 7, OH Leuven have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Genk and OH Leuven last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when OH Leuven 0-2 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Genk and OH Leuven?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Genk, 100% for OH Leuven — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Genk and 0% for OH Leuven.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play OH Leuven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Genk's games and 100% of OH Leuven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genk vs OH Leuven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Genk's recent games and 0% of OH Leuven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genk and OH Leuven tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, OH Leuven in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Genk run riot with a 4-0 hammering of OH Leuven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat OH Leuven 4-0 at Luminus Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.28 xG and OH Leuven 1.72 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Genk beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. OH Leuven landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.21 / defence 1.37 against OH Leuven attack 0.79 / defence 1.15, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 26% | Draw 29% | OH Leuven 45%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Genk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 67%, OH Leuven 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
OH Leuven's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genk 1.33 PPG, OH Leuven 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. Genk scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. OH Leuven managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.