Charleroi 2-0 Standard Liege – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs Standard Liege fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Standard Liege travel to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to take on Charleroi. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 January 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Standard Liege stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liege, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Standard Liege away from home this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Charleroi 1.20 PPG, Standard Liege 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Charleroi, 2 for Standard Liege and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2025, ended 1–3 with Standard Liege winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Charleroi trading profile (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Standard Liege trading profile (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 55% versus Standard Liege 35%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Charleroi 45% | Standard Liege 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.06 xG and Standard Liege 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.913 / defence 0.920 | Standard Liege attack 0.846 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.166. Data: 50 Charleroi games / 50 Standard Liege games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 39% | Draw 31% | Standard Liege 30%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Standard Liege 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 60% | Standard Liege 10% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Standard Liege | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 39% | Draw 31% | Standard Liege 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Charleroi 1.06 / Standard Liege 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.913 / def 0.920 | Standard Liege attack 0.846 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Standard Liege xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Standard Liege kick off?
Charleroi vs Standard Liege kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 18 January 2026 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Charleroi 2 - 0 Standard Liege.
Where is Charleroi vs Standard Liege being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Standard Liege part of?
Charleroi vs Standard Liege is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 39% chance of winning, Standard Liege a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Charleroi and Standard Liege will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Standard Liege have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Standard Liege?
Record (7 meetings): Charleroi 2W | Draws 3 | Standard Liege 2W.
What form are Charleroi and Standard Liege in?
Charleroi (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Standard Liege (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (0.91) and Standard Liege's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Standard Liege's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
39%
2.59
31%
3.23
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Charleroi xG
Total xG
1.97
0.91
Standard Liege xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
10%
9.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 12.6 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Standard Liege expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Charleroi and 0.91 for Standard Liege, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charleroi's recent record stands at 23W 16D 21L from 60 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Standard Liege, meanwhile, have gone 18W 19D 23L across 60 games — 1.22 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Standard Liege is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.42 PPG, Standard Liege on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 14W 9D 6L from 29 games — 1.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Standard Liege's away record stands at 8W 8D 13L across 29 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charleroi are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Standard Liege are on 0.75 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Standard Liege in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Standard Liege
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Standard Liege in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 23W 16D 21L in their last 60 games (1.42 PPG), while Standard Liege have gone 18W 19D 23L in their last 60 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Standard Liege away?
Charleroi's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.76 PPG; Standard Liege away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Standard Liege been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Standard Liege in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charleroi and Standard Liege runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charleroi's record when hosting Standard Liege specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Charleroi
3
Draws
3
Standard Liege
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Standard Liege?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 4, Standard Liege have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Standard Liege last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Standard Liege 0-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Standard Liege?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 52%, Standard Liege 28% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Charleroi) and 34% (Standard Liege).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Standard Liege in 31%; Standard Liege in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Standard Liege away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Standard Liege?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Charleroi's recent matches and 28% of Standard Liege's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Standard Liege usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Charleroi's recent games and 34% of Standard Liege's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Standard Liege tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Standard Liege in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Standard Liege.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Standard Liege 2-0 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 21, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.06 xG and Standard Liege 0.91 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Charleroi beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Standard Liege landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.91 / defence 0.92 against Standard Liege attack 0.85 / defence 0.88, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 39% | Draw 31% | Standard Liege 30%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 45%, Standard Liege 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Standard Liege's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.42 PPG, Standard Liege 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.