Charleroi vs Lommel United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs Lommel United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 27 as Charleroi welcome Lommel United to Stade du Pays de Charleroi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 April 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this season.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Lommel United have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Lommel United have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lommel United's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Charleroi) versus 2.00 (Lommel United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Charleroi register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Lommel United in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Charleroi, 0 for Lommel United and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2026, ended 1–0 with Charleroi winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Charleroi in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Lommel United in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 51% versus Lommel United 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 42% | Lommel United 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.59 xG and Lommel United 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.221 / defence 0.993 | Lommel United attack 0.792 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.386. Data: 35 Charleroi games / 5 Lommel United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 49% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 26%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Lommel United 3.85. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 60% | Lommel United 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Lommel United | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 49% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Charleroi 1.59 / Lommel United 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.221 / def 0.993 | Lommel United attack 0.792 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Lommel United xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Lommel United kick off?
Charleroi vs Lommel United is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 3 April 2027 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
Where is Charleroi vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Lommel United part of?
Charleroi vs Lommel United is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 49% chance of winning, Lommel United a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Charleroi and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Lommel United?
Record (1 meetings): Charleroi 1W | Draws 0 | Lommel United 0W.
What form are Charleroi and Lommel United in?
Charleroi (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Lommel United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 1.22x the league average against Lommel United's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lommel United's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
49%
2.04
25%
4.00
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.68
1.09
Lommel United xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
17%
6.06
5%
18.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.9 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.09 for Lommel United, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charleroi's recent record stands at 18W 7D 18L from 43 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lommel United, meanwhile, have gone 22W 10D 11L across 43 games — 1.77 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lommel United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.42 PPG, Lommel United on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 8W 4D 9L from 21 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lommel United's away record stands at 10W 7D 4L across 21 trips, a 1.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lommel United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Charleroi are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.84 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Early Season
Lommel United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Lommel United in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 18W 7D 18L in their last 43 games (1.42 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 22W 10D 11L in their last 43 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Lommel United away?
Lommel United's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.33 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Lommel United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Lommel United in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Charleroi
0
Draws
0
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Lommel United?
From 1 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 1, Lommel United have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Lommel United 0-1 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Lommel United?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 57%, Lommel United 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Charleroi) and 57% (Lommel United).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Lommel United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Charleroi's games and 62% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Charleroi's recent games and 57% of Lommel United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Lommel United tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.