Charleroi 3-4 Cercle Brugge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Charleroi welcome Cercle Brugge to Stade du Pays de Charleroi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 17:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's home record at Stade du Pays de Charleroi: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cercle Brugge stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cercle Brugge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cercle Brugge's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Charleroi carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Charleroi have won 4, Cercle Brugge 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 3–2 with Charleroi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Charleroi in-play tendencies (61 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Cercle Brugge in-play tendencies (61 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 52% versus Cercle Brugge 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 43% | Cercle Brugge 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.03 xG and Cercle Brugge 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.013 / defence 0.844 | Cercle Brugge attack 0.961 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.231. Data: 53 Charleroi games / 53 Cercle Brugge games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 36% | Draw 31% | Cercle Brugge 34%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Cercle Brugge 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 50% | Cercle Brugge 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 36% | Draw 31% | Cercle Brugge 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Charleroi 1.03 / Cercle Brugge 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.013 / def 0.844 | Cercle Brugge attack 0.961 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Cercle Brugge xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge kick off?
Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge?
Charleroi 3 - 4 Cercle Brugge.
Where is Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge part of?
Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 36% chance of winning, Cercle Brugge a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Charleroi and Cercle Brugge will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Cercle Brugge?
Record (9 meetings): Charleroi 4W | Draws 2 | Cercle Brugge 3W.
What form are Charleroi and Cercle Brugge in?
Charleroi (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Cercle Brugge (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (1.01) and Cercle Brugge's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cercle Brugge's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
36%
2.81
31%
3.24
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.03
1.00
Cercle Brugge xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
12%
8.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Cercle Brugge expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.00 for Cercle Brugge, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 24W 16D 21L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cercle Brugge's form line: 15W 21D 25L from 61 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-L. The sample for Cercle Brugge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.44 PPG, Cercle Brugge on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.76 PPG from 29 outings (14W 9D 6L).
On the road, Cercle Brugge have gone 6W 11D 12L from 29 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charleroi are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Cercle Brugge are on 1.23 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cercle Brugge in 61%.
Last 61 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Cercle Brugge
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Cercle Brugge in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 24W 16D 21L in their last 61 games (1.44 PPG), while Cercle Brugge have gone 15W 21D 25L in their last 61 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Cercle Brugge away?
Charleroi's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.76 PPG; Cercle Brugge away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charleroi and Cercle Brugge runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2022, when Charleroi won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting Cercle Brugge specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Charleroi
2
Draws
4
Cercle Brugge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Cercle Brugge?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 4, Cercle Brugge have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Cercle Brugge last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Charleroi 3-4 Cercle Brugge.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Cercle Brugge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 52%, Cercle Brugge 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Charleroi) and 41% (Cercle Brugge).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Cercle Brugge in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Cercle Brugge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Cercle Brugge?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Charleroi's recent matches and 55% of Cercle Brugge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Charleroi's recent games and 41% of Cercle Brugge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Cercle Brugge tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Cercle Brugge in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cercle Brugge defy the odds to beat Charleroi 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cercle Brugge beat Charleroi 3-4 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 24, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.03 xG and Cercle Brugge 1.00 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Charleroi beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cercle Brugge outscored their 1.00 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.01 / defence 0.84 against Cercle Brugge attack 0.96 / defence 0.82, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 36% | Draw 31% | Cercle Brugge 34%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Cercle Brugge win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 43%, Cercle Brugge 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Cercle Brugge's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.44 PPG, Cercle Brugge 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cercle Brugge win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cercle Brugge (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.