Cercle Brugge 4-1 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cercle Brugge at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cercle Brugge face St. Truiden.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden meet at Jan Breydelstadion in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 February 2024 at 18:15 UK time.
Current Form
Cercle Brugge's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cercle Brugge at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
St. Truiden have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
St. Truiden away from home: 1W 6D 3L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Cercle Brugge, 0 for St. Truiden and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2023, ended Cercle Brugge 2–0 St. Truiden — a Cercle Brugge win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Cercle Brugge — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cercle Brugge 56% versus St. Truiden 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cercle Brugge 53% | St. Truiden 42%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cercle Brugge surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while St. Truiden have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cercle Brugge 1.70 xG and St. Truiden 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cercle Brugge attack 0.950 / defence 1.011 | St. Truiden attack 0.999 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.221. Data: built from Cercle Brugge's last 57 games and St. Truiden's last 57.
Result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 48% | Draw 25% | St. Truiden 27%. Fair-value odds: Cercle Brugge 2.10 | Draw 3.98 | St. Truiden 3.68. Cercle Brugge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cercle Brugge as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cercle Brugge if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cercle Brugge's last 10 home games and St. Truiden's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cercle Brugge 40% (last 10 home games) | St. Truiden 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 24 | Venue: Jan Breydelstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 4 February 2024 at 18:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 48% | Draw 25% | St. Truiden 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Cercle Brugge 1.70 / St. Truiden 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Cercle Brugge attack 0.950 / def 1.011 | St. Truiden attack 0.999 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Cercle Brugge (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Cercle Brugge xG
Expected Goals
1.23
St. Truiden xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden FAQs
What time does Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden kick off?
Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden kicked off at 18:15 UK time on Sunday 4 February 2024 at Jan Breydelstadion.
What was the final score in Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden?
Cercle Brugge 4 - 1 St. Truiden.
Where is Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Jan Breydelstadion.
What competition is Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden part of?
Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 24) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Cercle Brugge a 48% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cercle Brugge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cercle Brugge's attack at 0.95x the league average against St. Truiden's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — St. Truiden's attack (1.00x) against Cercle Brugge's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from Cercle Brugge's last 57 games and St. Truiden's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cercle Brugge Win
48%
2.10
25%
3.98
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Cercle Brugge xG
Total xG
2.93
1.23
St. Truiden xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
5%
20.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.2 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Cercle Brugge and 1.23 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cercle Brugge's recent record stands at 25W 14D 18L from 57 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 18W 19D 20L across 57 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-D-L-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Cercle Brugge against 1.28 for St. Truiden. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cercle Brugge have managed 14W 7D 7L from their last 28 home games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 7W 11D 10L across their last 28 away games, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cercle Brugge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cercle Brugge are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.16 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cercle Brugge
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
Cercle Brugge (Home) vs St. Truiden (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cercle Brugge
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden Form FAQs
What form are Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Cercle Brugge have gone 25W 14D 18L in their last 57 games (1.56 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 18W 19D 20L in their last 57 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cercle Brugge at home or St. Truiden away?
Cercle Brugge's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cercle Brugge at home: 1.75 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden, the earliest from April 2023. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 14 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cercle Brugge won Cercle Brugge 4-1 St. Truiden on 4 Feb 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cercle Brugge have gone 3W 3D 0L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cercle Brugge
4
Draws
2
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Cercle Brugge have won 4, St. Truiden have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 August 2026: Cercle Brugge 3-3 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden?
Cercle Brugge have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cercle Brugge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cercle Brugge 54%, St. Truiden 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cercle Brugge) and 46% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cercle Brugge home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Cercle Brugge's recent matches and 54% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cercle Brugge's recent games and 46% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Cercle Brugge's recent matches and 61% of St. Truiden's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cercle Brugge run riot with a 4-1 hammering of St. Truiden.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cercle Brugge beat St. Truiden 4-1 at Jan Breydelstadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cercle Brugge 1.70 xG and St. Truiden 1.23 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Cercle Brugge beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cercle Brugge attack 0.95 / defence 1.01 against St. Truiden attack 1.00 / defence 1.11, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cercle Brugge 48% | Draw 25% | St. Truiden 27%, with Cercle Brugge to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cercle Brugge 53%, St. Truiden 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cercle Brugge's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
St. Truiden's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cercle Brugge 1.56 PPG, St. Truiden 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cercle Brugge win broke the near-deadlock. Cercle Brugge (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm. St. Truiden (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.