Cercle Brugge 1-2 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Charleroi travel to Jan Breydelstadion to take on Cercle Brugge. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 November 2021, 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cercle Brugge stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cercle Brugge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cercle Brugge have posted 0W 2D 5L at Jan Breydelstadion — 0.29 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Charleroi have posted 3W 3D 1L from 7 away outings — 1.71 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Charleroi are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Cercle Brugge trading profile (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Charleroi trading profile (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cercle Brugge 71% and Charleroi 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cercle Brugge 50% | Charleroi 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cercle Brugge 1.01 xG and Charleroi 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cercle Brugge attack 0.618 / defence 1.185 | Charleroi attack 1.015 / defence 1.333. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.438. Cercle Brugge's attack strength of 0.618 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Charleroi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.333 — this is suppressing Cercle Brugge's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Cercle Brugge games / 14 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 22% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 54%. Fair-value odds: Cercle Brugge 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Charleroi 1.85. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Cercle Brugge 57% | Charleroi 71% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Jan Breydelstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 22% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Cercle Brugge 1.01 / Charleroi 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Cercle Brugge attack 0.618 / def 1.185 | Charleroi attack 1.015 / def 1.333 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Cercle Brugge xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Charleroi xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi kick off?
Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Jan Breydelstadion.
What was the final score in Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi?
Cercle Brugge 1 - 2 Charleroi.
Where is Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Jan Breydelstadion.
What competition is Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi part of?
Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Cercle Brugge a 22% chance of winning, Charleroi a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cercle Brugge and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cercle Brugge and Charleroi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cercle Brugge and Charleroi in?
Cercle Brugge (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Charleroi (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cercle Brugge's attack rating (0.62) and Charleroi's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Cercle Brugge's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
22%
4.57
24%
4.17
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Cercle Brugge xG
Total xG
2.74
1.73
Charleroi xG
4.57
22%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
18%
5.64
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
4%
25.79
20%
5.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Cercle Brugge and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Cercle Brugge and 1.73 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cercle Brugge's recent record stands at 2W 4D 8L from 14 games, a 0.71 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Cercle Brugge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 3L across 14 games — 1.64 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Charleroi by 0.93 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cercle Brugge heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cercle Brugge have managed 0W 2D 5L from 7 games — 0.29 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.71 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Charleroi's away record stands at 3W 3D 1L across 7 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cercle Brugge are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.79 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cercle Brugge have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cercle Brugge
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cercle Brugge and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Cercle Brugge have gone 2W 4D 8L in their last 14 games (0.71 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 6W 5D 3L in their last 14 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cercle Brugge at home or Charleroi away?
Charleroi's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cercle Brugge at home: 0.29 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2022, when Charleroi won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cercle Brugge's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cercle Brugge
2
Draws
4
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cercle Brugge and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Cercle Brugge have won 4, Charleroi have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cercle Brugge and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Charleroi 3-4 Cercle Brugge.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cercle Brugge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cercle Brugge 57%, Charleroi 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 43% for Cercle Brugge and 86% for Charleroi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 71% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cercle Brugge have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cercle Brugge home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cercle Brugge play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Cercle Brugge's games and 71% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Cercle Brugge's matches and 86% of Charleroi's.
Do Cercle Brugge and Charleroi tend to score early?
Cercle Brugge have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charleroi edge out Cercle Brugge 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Cercle Brugge 1-2 at Jan Breydelstadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cercle Brugge 1.01 xG and Charleroi 1.73 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cercle Brugge attack 0.62 / defence 1.19 against Charleroi attack 1.01 / defence 1.33, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cercle Brugge 22% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 54%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cercle Brugge 50%, Charleroi 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cercle Brugge's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Charleroi's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Charleroi arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.