Cercle Brugge 0-4 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Antwerp (36%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cercle Brugge face Antwerp.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Cercle Brugge welcome Antwerp to Jan Breydel Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cercle Brugge — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cercle Brugge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cercle Brugge's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Jan Breydel Stadion this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antwerp stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antwerp's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Antwerp's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Cercle Brugge's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Antwerp, who boast 6 victories compared to 1 for Cercle Brugge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Antwerp have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Cercle Brugge in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Antwerp in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cercle Brugge 62% versus Antwerp 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cercle Brugge 48% | Antwerp 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cercle Brugge 1.07 xG and Antwerp 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cercle Brugge attack 1.061 / defence 1.373 | Antwerp attack 0.706 / defence 0.779. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.187. Antwerp's defence strength of 0.779 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 Cercle Brugge games / 52 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 32% | Draw 32% | Antwerp 36%. Fair-value odds: Cercle Brugge 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Antwerp 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Antwerp at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antwerp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Cercle Brugge 100% | Antwerp 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Jan Breydel Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 32% | Draw 32% | Antwerp 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Cercle Brugge 1.07 / Antwerp 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Cercle Brugge attack 1.061 / def 1.373 | Antwerp attack 0.706 / def 0.779 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Cercle Brugge xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Antwerp xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp kick off?
Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Jan Breydel Stadion.
What was the final score in Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp?
Cercle Brugge 0 - 4 Antwerp.
Where is Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Jan Breydel Stadion.
What competition is Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp part of?
Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Cercle Brugge a 32% chance of winning, Antwerp a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cercle Brugge and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cercle Brugge and Antwerp?
Record (9 meetings): Cercle Brugge 1W | Draws 2 | Antwerp 6W.
What form are Cercle Brugge and Antwerp in?
Cercle Brugge (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Antwerp (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cercle Brugge's attack at 1.06x the league average against Antwerp's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Antwerp's attack versus Cercle Brugge's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
32%
3.12
32%
3.15
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Cercle Brugge xG
Total xG
2.22
1.15
Antwerp xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
10%
9.86
12%
8.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.5 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Cercle Brugge and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Cercle Brugge and 1.15 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cercle Brugge come into this having played 60 games, going 15W 21D 24L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D. The sample for Cercle Brugge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Antwerp sit at 1.27 PPG from 60 outings (19W 19D 22L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cercle Brugge on 1.10 PPG, Antwerp on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cercle Brugge's home form reads 9W 10D 10L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Antwerp have taken 1.14 points per game from 29 outings (7W 12D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Cercle Brugge are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.22 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cercle Brugge have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cercle Brugge
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cercle Brugge and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Cercle Brugge have gone 15W 21D 24L in their last 60 games (1.10 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 19W 19D 22L in their last 60 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cercle Brugge at home or Antwerp away?
Cercle Brugge's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cercle Brugge at home: 1.28 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Jan 2026, when Antwerp won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cercle Brugge's record when hosting Antwerp specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Cercle Brugge
2
Draws
7
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cercle Brugge and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, Cercle Brugge have won 1, Antwerp have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cercle Brugge and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Cercle Brugge 0-4 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Cercle Brugge and Antwerp?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cercle Brugge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cercle Brugge 69%, Antwerp 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Cercle Brugge) and 21% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Antwerp in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cercle Brugge home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cercle Brugge play Antwerp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Cercle Brugge's games and 45% of Antwerp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Cercle Brugge's recent games and 21% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cercle Brugge and Antwerp tend to score early?
Cercle Brugge have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Antwerp run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Cercle Brugge.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat Cercle Brugge 0-4 at Jan Breydel Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cercle Brugge 1.07 xG and Antwerp 1.15 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Cercle Brugge fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Antwerp outscored their 1.15 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cercle Brugge attack 1.06 / defence 1.37 against Antwerp attack 0.71 / defence 0.78, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cercle Brugge 32% | Draw 32% | Antwerp 36%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cercle Brugge 48%, Antwerp 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cercle Brugge's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Antwerp's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cercle Brugge 1.10 PPG, Antwerp 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antwerp win broke the near-deadlock. Cercle Brugge (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Antwerp (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.