Cercle Brugge 0-0 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Cercle Brugge take on Antwerp.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Cercle Brugge welcome Antwerp to Jan Breydelstadion in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 28). Kick-off is Saturday 1 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Cercle Brugge — last 10 games: 3W 6D 1L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cercle Brugge's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Antwerp stand at 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Antwerp's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Cercle Brugge) versus 1.70 (Antwerp). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Antwerp have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Cercle Brugge.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2024, ended Cercle Brugge 0–3 Antwerp — a Antwerp win.
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
Cercle Brugge in-play tendencies (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Antwerp in-play tendencies (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cercle Brugge 54% versus Antwerp 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cercle Brugge 45% | Antwerp 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cercle Brugge surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Antwerp have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cercle Brugge 1.11 xG and Antwerp 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cercle Brugge attack 0.817 / defence 0.911 | Antwerp attack 0.927 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.150. Data: built from Cercle Brugge's last 57 games and Antwerp's last 57.
Result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 35% | Draw 37% | Antwerp 28%. Fair-value odds: Cercle Brugge 2.84 | Draw 2.73 | Antwerp 3.55. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cercle Brugge's last 10 home games and Antwerp's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Cercle Brugge 40% (last 10 home games) | Antwerp 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 28 | Venue: Jan Breydelstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 1 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 35% | Draw 37% | Antwerp 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Cercle Brugge 1.11 / Antwerp 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Cercle Brugge attack 0.817 / def 0.911 | Antwerp attack 0.927 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Cercle Brugge xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Antwerp xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp FAQs
What time does Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp kick off?
Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Jan Breydelstadion.
What was the final score in Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp?
Cercle Brugge 0 - 0 Antwerp.
Where is Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Jan Breydelstadion.
What competition is Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp part of?
Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 28) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Cercle Brugge a 35% chance of winning, Antwerp a 28% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cercle Brugge and Antwerp will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cercle Brugge's attack at 0.82x the league average against Antwerp's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Antwerp's attack versus Cercle Brugge's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cercle Brugge's last 57 games and Antwerp's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.84
37%
2.73
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Cercle Brugge xG
Total xG
2.08
0.97
Antwerp xG
2.84
35%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
9%
10.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cercle Brugge and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Cercle Brugge and 0.97 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cercle Brugge come into this having played 67 games, going 24W 19D 24L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-D.
On the other side, Antwerp sit at 1.52 PPG from 67 outings (28W 18D 21L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cercle Brugge on 1.36 PPG, Antwerp on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cercle Brugge's home form reads 14W 9D 10L across their last 33 home games, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Antwerp have taken 1.21 points per game from their last 33 away games (10W 10D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Cercle Brugge are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.61 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cercle Brugge
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
Cercle Brugge (Home) vs Antwerp (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cercle Brugge
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
❓ Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp Form FAQs
What form are Cercle Brugge and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Cercle Brugge have gone 24W 19D 24L in their last 67 games (1.36 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 28W 18D 21L in their last 67 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cercle Brugge at home or Antwerp away?
Cercle Brugge's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cercle Brugge at home: 1.55 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from April 2023. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 31 Jan 2026, when Antwerp won Cercle Brugge 0-4 Antwerp.
Cercle Brugge's record when hosting Antwerp specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Cercle Brugge
2
Draws
6
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cercle Brugge and Antwerp?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Cercle Brugge have won 2, Antwerp have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cercle Brugge and Antwerp last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Cercle Brugge 2-1 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Cercle Brugge and Antwerp?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cercle Brugge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cercle Brugge 54%, Antwerp 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cercle Brugge) and 42% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Cercle Brugge keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Antwerp in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cercle Brugge home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cercle Brugge and Antwerp matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Cercle Brugge's recent matches and 52% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cercle Brugge and Antwerp matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cercle Brugge's recent games and 42% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cercle Brugge and Antwerp matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Cercle Brugge's recent matches and 79% of Antwerp's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cercle Brugge's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jan Breydelstadion, Regular Season - 28, as Cercle Brugge and Antwerp drew 0-0 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cercle Brugge 1.11 xG and Antwerp 0.97 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cercle Brugge fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Antwerp landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cercle Brugge attack 0.82 / defence 0.91 against Antwerp attack 0.93 / defence 0.93, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cercle Brugge 35% | Draw 37% | Antwerp 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cercle Brugge 45%, Antwerp 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cercle Brugge's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Antwerp's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cercle Brugge 1.36 PPG, Antwerp 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cercle Brugge (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.