AS Eupen 3-2 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genk at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Eupen vs Genk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 10 as AS Eupen welcome Genk to Stadion am Kehrweg. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 October 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, AS Eupen have gone 5W 2D 2L from 9 outings — a 1.89 PPG return. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for AS Eupen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Eupen's home record at Stadion am Kehrweg: 1W 1D 2L from 4 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.89 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion am Kehrweg this season.
Genk — All Games: 5W 2D 2L from 9 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.89 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.11 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genk's away record: 2W 1D 1L from 4 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.89 PPG (AS Eupen) versus 1.89 (Genk). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
AS Eupen trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Genk trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AS Eupen 78% and Genk 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AS Eupen 78% | Genk 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Eupen 1.33 xG and Genk 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Eupen attack 0.813 / defence 1.111 | Genk attack 0.939 / defence 1.390. League average goals — home 1.180 / away 1.477. Genk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.390 — this is suppressing AS Eupen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 AS Eupen games / 9 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Eupen 33% | Draw 25% | Genk 42%. Fair-value odds: AS Eupen 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Genk 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genk are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: AS Eupen 75% | Genk 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Eupen vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion am Kehrweg • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Eupen 33% | Draw 25% | Genk 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG AS Eupen 1.33 / Genk 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: AS Eupen attack 0.813 / def 1.111 | Genk attack 0.939 / def 1.390 | league avg home 1.180 / away 1.477 • Poisson stance: Genk (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
AS Eupen xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Genk xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Eupen vs Genk kick off?
AS Eupen vs Genk kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Stadion am Kehrweg.
What was the final score in AS Eupen vs Genk?
AS Eupen 3 - 2 Genk.
Where is AS Eupen vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion am Kehrweg.
What competition is AS Eupen vs Genk part of?
AS Eupen vs Genk is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win AS Eupen vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives AS Eupen a 33% chance of winning, Genk a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Eupen vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both AS Eupen and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will AS Eupen vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Genk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AS Eupen and Genk in?
AS Eupen (all comps): 5W-2D-2L in 9 | 1.89 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.11 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Genk (all comps): 5W-2D-2L in 9 | 1.89 PPG | GF 2.11 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AS Eupen's attack at 0.81x the league average against Genk's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Genk's attack versus AS Eupen's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
33%
3.03
25%
4.04
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
AS Eupen xG
Total xG
2.88
1.54
Genk xG
3.03
33%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
7%
14.15
11%
8.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Eupen vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are AS Eupen and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for AS Eupen and 1.54 for Genk, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Eupen vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AS Eupen come into this having played 9 games, going 5W 2D 2L for 1.89 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W. The sample for AS Eupen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Genk sit at 1.89 PPG from 9 outings (5W 2D 2L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AS Eupen on 1.89 PPG, Genk on 1.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
AS Eupen's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.89 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Genk have taken 1.75 points per game from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Eupen are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 2.11 scored and 1.33 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: AS Eupen have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Genk in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Eupen
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Eupen and Genk in coming into this match?
AS Eupen have gone 5W 2D 2L in their last 9 games (1.89 PPG), while Genk have gone 5W 2D 2L in their last 9 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Eupen at home or Genk away?
Genk's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Eupen at home: 1.00 PPG; Genk away: 1.75 PPG.
Have AS Eupen or Genk been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Eupen have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Genk in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2022, when Genk won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AS Eupen's record when hosting Genk specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
AS Eupen
1
Draws
3
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Genk?
From 6 meetings on record, AS Eupen have won 2, Genk have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AS Eupen and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 10 December 2023, when AS Eupen 1-3 Genk.
Who has won more matches between AS Eupen and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Eupen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — AS Eupen at 75%, Genk at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for AS Eupen and 75% for Genk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Eupen home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Eupen play Genk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of AS Eupen's games and 100% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AS Eupen vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of AS Eupen's matches and 75% of Genk's.
Do AS Eupen and Genk tend to score early?
AS Eupen have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Genk in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AS Eupen defy the odds to beat Genk 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Eupen beat Genk 3-2 at Stadion am Kehrweg, Regular Season - 10, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.33 xG and Genk 1.54 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. AS Eupen beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.81 / defence 1.11 against Genk attack 0.94 / defence 1.39, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 33% | Draw 25% | Genk 42%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual AS Eupen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 78%, Genk 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Eupen's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Genk's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Eupen 1.89 PPG, Genk 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Eupen win broke the near-deadlock. AS Eupen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Genk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.