Antwerp 1-0 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antwerp at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antwerp vs Zulte Waregem fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Antwerp and Zulte Waregem meet at Bosuilstadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 31 July 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Antwerp's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Antwerp have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Bosuilstadion, Antwerp have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Zulte Waregem have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Zulte Waregem have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Antwerp lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 1–0 with Antwerp winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Antwerp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Zulte Waregem goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 51% versus Zulte Waregem 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 49% | Zulte Waregem 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.78 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 0.989 / defence 1.000 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.938 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.088. Data: 35 Antwerp games / 35 Zulte Waregem games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Antwerp 55% | Draw 23% | Zulte Waregem 22%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Zulte Waregem 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Antwerp (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antwerp as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Antwerp 50% | Zulte Waregem 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jul 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 55% | Draw 23% | Zulte Waregem 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG Antwerp 1.78 / Zulte Waregem 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 0.989 / def 1.000 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.938 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Zulte Waregem xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
Antwerp vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 31 July 2022 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Zulte Waregem?
Antwerp 1 - 0 Zulte Waregem.
Where is Antwerp vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Zulte Waregem part of?
Antwerp vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 55% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Antwerp and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Zulte Waregem?
Record (2 meetings): Antwerp 1W | Draws 0 | Zulte Waregem 1W.
What form are Antwerp and Zulte Waregem in?
Antwerp (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Antwerp's attack at 0.99x the league average against Zulte Waregem's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Zulte Waregem's attack (0.94x) against Antwerp's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
55%
1.81
23%
4.29
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Antwerp xG
Total xG
2.80
1.02
Zulte Waregem xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
17%
5.91
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
4%
27.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.1 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Antwerp and 1.02 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Zulte Waregem?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Antwerp come into this having played 35 games, going 19W 5D 11L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Antwerp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Zulte Waregem sit at 1.00 PPG from 35 outings (9W 8D 18L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Antwerp carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Zulte Waregem — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Antwerp's home form reads 8W 4D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Zulte Waregem have taken 0.76 points per game from 17 outings (3W 4D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antwerp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Antwerp are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.26 scored and 1.97 conceded.
Defensively: Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Early Season
Zulte Waregem
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 19W 5D 11L in their last 35 games (1.77 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 9W 8D 18L in their last 35 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Antwerp's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 1.65 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Antwerp or Zulte Waregem been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Zulte Waregem in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 27 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antwerp have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Zulte Waregem — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Antwerp
0
Draws
2
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Zulte Waregem?
From 6 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 4, Zulte Waregem have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 27 December 2025, when Antwerp 2-1 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Zulte Waregem?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antwerp see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 53%, Zulte Waregem 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Antwerp) and 65% (Zulte Waregem). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antwerp keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Zulte Waregem in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Antwerp's games and 59% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antwerp vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Antwerp's matches and 65% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do Antwerp and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antwerp edge out Zulte Waregem 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat Zulte Waregem 1-0 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.78 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.02 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Zulte Waregem landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 0.99 / defence 1.00 against Zulte Waregem attack 0.94 / defence 1.14, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 55% | Draw 23% | Zulte Waregem 22%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 49%, Zulte Waregem 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Antwerp arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Antwerp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.