Antwerp 4-2 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antwerp at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Union St. Gilloise travel to Bosuilstadion to take on Antwerp. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 31 August 2022, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antwerp stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Antwerp have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Antwerp have posted 4W 2D 4L at Bosuilstadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Bosuilstadion this season.
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Union St. Gilloise have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Union St. Gilloise's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Antwerp have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Antwerp trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 53% versus Union St. Gilloise 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 49% | Union St. Gilloise 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.74 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.175 / defence 0.903 | Union St. Gilloise attack 0.941 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.414. Data: 39 Antwerp games / 39 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antwerp 50% | Draw 24% | Union St. Gilloise 26%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Union St. Gilloise 3.85. Antwerp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Antwerp at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antwerp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Antwerp 50% | Union St. Gilloise 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 Aug 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 50% | Draw 24% | Union St. Gilloise 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Antwerp 1.74 / Union St. Gilloise 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.175 / def 0.903 | Union St. Gilloise attack 0.941 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Union St. Gilloise xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 31 August 2022 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Antwerp 4 - 2 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 50% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise in?
Antwerp (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Antwerp's attack at 1.18x the league average against Union St. Gilloise's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Antwerp's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
50%
2.01
24%
4.23
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Antwerp xG
Total xG
2.94
1.20
Union St. Gilloise xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
18%
5.67
Win to Nil
15%
6.67
5%
21.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Antwerp and 1.20 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Antwerp's recent record stands at 25W 7D 13L from 45 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Antwerp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 29W 7D 9L across 45 games — 2.09 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antwerp on 1.82 PPG, Union St. Gilloise on 2.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Antwerp have managed 11W 5D 6L from 22 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 15W 4D 3L across 22 trips, a 2.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Antwerp are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.98 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Union St. Gilloise in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Early Season
Union St. Gilloise
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 25W 7D 13L in their last 45 games (1.82 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 29W 7D 9L in their last 45 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 1.73 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.23 PPG.
Have Antwerp or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Mar 2025, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antwerp's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Antwerp
3
Draws
6
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 1, Union St. Gilloise have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Antwerp see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 54%, Union St. Gilloise 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Antwerp) and 59% (Union St. Gilloise). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antwerp keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Union St. Gilloise in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Antwerp's recent matches and 46% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Antwerp's matches and 59% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antwerp cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Union St. Gilloise.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat Union St. Gilloise 4-2 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.74 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.20 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Antwerp beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.18 / defence 0.90 against Union St. Gilloise attack 0.94 / defence 0.98, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 50% | Draw 24% | Union St. Gilloise 26%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 49%, Union St. Gilloise 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.82 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 2.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antwerp win broke the near-deadlock. Antwerp (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.