Antwerp 1-0 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St. Truiden at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antwerp vs St. Truiden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees St. Truiden travel to Bosuilstadion to take on Antwerp. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 February 2026, 17:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Antwerp — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bosuilstadion, Antwerp have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St. Truiden stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's away record: 7W 0D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. St. Truiden are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Antwerp register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, St. Truiden in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Antwerp have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 8 past contests while St. Truiden have managed just 1 wins.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with St. Truiden winning.
The historical record gives Antwerp a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Antwerp trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
St. Truiden trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Antwerp 55% and St. Truiden 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 47% | St. Truiden 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.11 xG and St. Truiden 2.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 0.940 / defence 1.053 | St. Truiden attack 1.420 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.370. St. Truiden have an above-average attack strength of 1.420 — the away xG of 2.05 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Antwerp games / 56 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antwerp 20% | Draw 22% | St. Truiden 59%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 5.00 | Draw 4.55 | St. Truiden 1.69. The model has a clear lean to St. Truiden (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Antwerp dominate the H2H record, yet St. Truiden are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, St. Truiden are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Antwerp 60% | St. Truiden 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 20% | Draw 22% | St. Truiden 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Antwerp 1.11 / St. Truiden 2.05 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 0.940 / def 1.053 | St. Truiden attack 1.420 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
2.05
St. Truiden xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs St. Truiden kick off?
Antwerp vs St. Truiden kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Antwerp 1 - 0 St. Truiden.
Where is Antwerp vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs St. Truiden part of?
Antwerp vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 20% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 59% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Antwerp and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and St. Truiden?
Record (8 meetings): Antwerp 4W | Draws 3 | St. Truiden 1W.
What form are Antwerp and St. Truiden in?
Antwerp (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. St. Truiden (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Antwerp's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Antwerp's defence, projects 2.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
20%
5.10
22%
4.59
59%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
0 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Antwerp xG
Total xG
3.16
2.05
St. Truiden xG
5.10
20%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
1.71
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
13%
7.75
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
3%
39.57
19%
5.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Antwerp and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Antwerp and 2.05 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Antwerp's recent record stands at 20W 19D 23L from 62 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 27W 14D 21L across 62 games — 1.53 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antwerp on 1.27 PPG, St. Truiden on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Antwerp have managed 12W 7D 12L from 31 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 11W 6D 14L across 31 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Antwerp are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.52 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden in 66%.
Last 62 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 20W 19D 23L in their last 62 games (1.27 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 27W 14D 21L in their last 62 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or St. Truiden away?
Antwerp's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 1.39 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Aug 2024, when Antwerp won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antwerp's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Antwerp
3
Draws
2
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 5, St. Truiden have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Antwerp 1-4 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and St. Truiden?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Antwerp at 64%, St. Truiden at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Antwerp and 64% for St. Truiden. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play St. Truiden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Antwerp's games and 71% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antwerp vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Antwerp's matches and 64% of St. Truiden's.
Do Antwerp and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Antwerp defy the odds to beat St. Truiden 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat St. Truiden 1-0 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.11 xG and St. Truiden 2.05 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. St. Truiden landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 0.94 / defence 1.05 against St. Truiden attack 1.42 / defence 0.92, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 20% | Draw 22% | St. Truiden 59%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Antwerp win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 47%, St. Truiden 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
St. Truiden's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.27 PPG, St. Truiden 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antwerp win broke the near-deadlock. Antwerp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.