Antwerp 0-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antwerp at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antwerp vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Antwerp and Charleroi meet at Bosuilstadion in Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Group - 37. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Antwerp (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Antwerp's home record at Bosuilstadion: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Charleroi, who have claimed 6 wins from 9 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Charleroi winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Charleroi have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Antwerp — key trading statistics (77 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Charleroi — key trading statistics (77 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 53% versus Charleroi 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 47% | Charleroi 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.24 xG and Charleroi 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 0.940 / defence 0.957 | Charleroi attack 0.930 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.321. Data: 60 Antwerp games / 60 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antwerp 38% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 35%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Charleroi 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antwerp as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antwerp if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Antwerp 40% | Charleroi 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Group - 37 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 38% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Antwerp 1.24 / Charleroi 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 0.940 / def 0.957 | Charleroi attack 0.930 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Charleroi xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs Charleroi kick off?
Antwerp vs Charleroi kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Antwerp 0 - 1 Charleroi.
Where is Antwerp vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Charleroi part of?
Antwerp vs Charleroi is a Conference League Group - 37 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 38% chance of winning, Charleroi a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Antwerp and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Charleroi?
Record (9 meetings): Antwerp 2W | Draws 1 | Charleroi 6W.
What form are Antwerp and Charleroi in?
Antwerp (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Charleroi (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Antwerp's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (0.93x) against Antwerp's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
38%
2.64
28%
3.63
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Antwerp xG
Total xG
2.42
1.18
Charleroi xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
12%
8.57
10%
9.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.5 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.0 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Antwerp and 1.18 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Antwerp's recent record stands at 26W 21D 30L from 77 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 29W 18D 30L across 77 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Antwerp against 1.36 for Charleroi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Antwerp have managed 15W 8D 16L from 39 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 12W 9D 18L across 39 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Antwerp are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.34 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 77 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Current Season
Charleroi
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 26W 21D 30L in their last 77 games (1.29 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 29W 18D 30L in their last 77 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Charleroi away?
Antwerp's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 1.36 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Charleroi have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won 4-1 on 21 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antwerp have gone 1W 0D 5L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antwerp
1
Draws
7
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 2, Charleroi have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Antwerp 0-1 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 62%, Charleroi 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Antwerp) and 46% (Charleroi). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Charleroi in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Antwerp's games and 54% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antwerp vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Antwerp's matches and 46% of Charleroi's.
Do Antwerp and Charleroi tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charleroi defy the odds to beat Antwerp 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Antwerp 0-1 at Bosuilstadion, Conference League Group - 37, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.24 xG and Charleroi 1.18 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Antwerp fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 0.94 / defence 0.96 against Charleroi attack 0.93 / defence 0.99, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 38% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 35%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 47%, Charleroi 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (77 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Charleroi's trading profile (77 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.29 PPG, Charleroi 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.