Antwerp 1-3 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antwerp at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antwerp vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Antwerp and Charleroi meet at Bosuilstadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 December 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Antwerp (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antwerp's home record at Bosuilstadion: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Antwerp's 2.00 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Charleroi's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Antwerp, 2 for Charleroi and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Jul 2024, ended 1–0 with Antwerp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Antwerp — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Charleroi — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 48% versus Charleroi 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 56% | Charleroi 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 2.21 xG and Charleroi 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.163 / defence 0.823 | Charleroi attack 0.785 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.778 / away 1.013. Data: 46 Antwerp games / 46 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antwerp 71% | Draw 22% | Charleroi 7%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 1.41 | Draw 4.55 | Charleroi 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Antwerp (71%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antwerp as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Antwerp 50% | Charleroi 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 71% | Draw 22% | Charleroi 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 45% | xG Antwerp 2.21 / Charleroi 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.163 / def 0.823 | Charleroi attack 0.785 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.778 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Charleroi xG
45%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs Charleroi kick off?
Antwerp vs Charleroi kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Antwerp 1 - 3 Charleroi.
Where is Antwerp vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Charleroi part of?
Antwerp vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 71% chance of winning, Charleroi a 7% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Antwerp and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Charleroi?
Record (4 meetings): Antwerp 2W | Draws 0 | Charleroi 2W.
What form are Antwerp and Charleroi in?
Antwerp (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Charleroi (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Antwerp's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.21. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (0.79x) against Antwerp's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 3-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
71%
1.42
22%
4.47
7%
14.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
3 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Antwerp xG
Total xG
2.87
0.66
Charleroi xG
1.42
71%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
14.18
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
11%
9.15
Win to Nil
37%
2.73
1%
129.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.9 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.3 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Antwerp and 0.66 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Antwerp's recent record stands at 22W 12D 18L from 52 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 17W 12D 23L across 52 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Antwerp against 1.21 for Charleroi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Antwerp have managed 13W 6D 7L from 26 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 5W 5D 16L across 26 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Charleroi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antwerp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Antwerp are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.00 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 22W 12D 18L in their last 52 games (1.50 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 17W 12D 23L in their last 52 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Charleroi away?
Antwerp's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 1.73 PPG; Charleroi away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Antwerp or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Charleroi in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Charleroi have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won 4-1 on 21 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antwerp have gone 1W 0D 5L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antwerp
1
Draws
7
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 2, Charleroi have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Antwerp 0-1 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Charleroi see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 50%, Charleroi 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Antwerp) and 46% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Antwerp keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Charleroi in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Antwerp's recent matches and 38% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antwerp vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Antwerp's recent games and 46% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antwerp and Charleroi tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Antwerp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Antwerp 1-3 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 2.21 xG and Charleroi 0.66 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Antwerp fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Charleroi outscored their 0.66 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.16 / defence 0.82 against Charleroi attack 0.79 / defence 1.07, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 71% | Draw 22% | Charleroi 7%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a Charleroi win, an outcome the model had rated at just 7% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 56%, Charleroi 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Charleroi's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.50 PPG, Charleroi 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.