Antwerp 0-0 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antwerp at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antwerp vs Anderlecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Anderlecht make the trip to Bosuilstadion to face Antwerp in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 November 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Antwerp have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bosuilstadion, Antwerp have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Anderlecht's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Anderlecht away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Antwerp's favour (1.80 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Antwerp — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Anderlecht — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 50% versus Anderlecht 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 52% | Anderlecht 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 2.11 xG and Anderlecht 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.290 / defence 0.795 | Anderlecht attack 1.078 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.434. Antwerp carry an above-average attack strength of 1.290 — their λ of 2.11 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Antwerp's defence rating of 0.795 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Antwerp games / 48 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antwerp 58% | Draw 21% | Anderlecht 22%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | Anderlecht 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Antwerp (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.11 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antwerp are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Antwerp 50% | Anderlecht 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 58% | Draw 21% | Anderlecht 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 62% | xG Antwerp 2.11 / Anderlecht 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.290 / def 0.795 | Anderlecht attack 1.078 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.632 / away 1.434 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Anderlecht xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs Anderlecht kick off?
Antwerp vs Anderlecht kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Anderlecht?
Antwerp 0 - 0 Anderlecht.
Where is Antwerp vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Anderlecht part of?
Antwerp vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 58% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Antwerp and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Anderlecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Antwerp and Anderlecht in?
Antwerp (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Anderlecht (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Antwerp's attack rating (1.29) and Anderlecht's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 2.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Anderlecht's attack (1.08x) against Antwerp's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
58%
1.74
21%
4.81
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Antwerp xG
Total xG
3.33
1.23
Anderlecht xG
1.74
58%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
12%
8.22
Win to Nil
17%
5.94
3%
37.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Antwerp and 1.23 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Anderlecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Antwerp come into this having played 54 games, going 31W 7D 16L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Anderlecht sit at 1.69 PPG from 54 outings (26W 13D 15L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.85 PPG for Antwerp against 1.69 for Anderlecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Antwerp's home form reads 16W 4D 6L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Anderlecht have taken 1.50 points per game from 26 outings (11W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antwerp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Antwerp are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.94 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Blended
Anderlecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 31W 7D 16L in their last 54 games (1.85 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 26W 13D 15L in their last 54 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Anderlecht away?
Antwerp's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 2.00 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Antwerp or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 21 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antwerp have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Anderlecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Antwerp
4
Draws
5
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 1, Anderlecht have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2025, when Antwerp 2-2 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 54%, Anderlecht 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Antwerp and 62% for Anderlecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antwerp keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play Anderlecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Antwerp's recent matches and 54% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antwerp vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Antwerp's matches and 62% of Anderlecht's.
Do Antwerp and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Antwerp's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp and Anderlecht finished level at 0-0 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 2.11 xG and Anderlecht 1.23 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Antwerp fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Anderlecht landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.29 / defence 0.80 against Anderlecht attack 1.08 / defence 1.00, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 58% | Draw 21% | Anderlecht 22%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 52%, Anderlecht 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Anderlecht's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.85 PPG, Anderlecht 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.