Antwerp 0-4 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Anderlecht at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antwerp vs Anderlecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Anderlecht make the trip to Bosuilstadion to face Antwerp in Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 3. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 May 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Antwerp have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Bosuilstadion, Antwerp have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Anderlecht's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Anderlecht away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Anderlecht are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Antwerp — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Anderlecht — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 56% versus Anderlecht 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 47% | Anderlecht 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.12 xG and Anderlecht 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 0.953 / defence 1.053 | Anderlecht attack 1.048 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.308. Data: 34 Antwerp games / 34 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antwerp 29% | Draw 26% | Anderlecht 45%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Anderlecht 2.22. Anderlecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Anderlecht are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Anderlecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Antwerp 60% | Anderlecht 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 29% | Draw 26% | Anderlecht 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Antwerp 1.12 / Anderlecht 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 0.953 / def 1.053 | Anderlecht attack 1.048 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Anderlecht xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs Anderlecht kick off?
Antwerp vs Anderlecht kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Anderlecht?
Antwerp 0 - 4 Anderlecht.
Where is Antwerp vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Anderlecht part of?
Antwerp vs Anderlecht is a Championship Round - 3 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 29% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Antwerp and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Anderlecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Antwerp and Anderlecht in?
Antwerp (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Anderlecht (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Antwerp's attack rating (0.95) and Anderlecht's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Anderlecht's attack (1.05x) against Antwerp's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
29%
3.42
26%
3.82
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Antwerp xG
Total xG
2.56
1.44
Anderlecht xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
7%
14.50
15%
6.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 11.2 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Antwerp and 1.44 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Antwerp come into this having played 36 games, going 19W 7D 10L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-D.
On the other side, Anderlecht sit at 1.81 PPG from 36 outings (18W 11D 7L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.78 PPG for Antwerp against 1.81 for Anderlecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Antwerp's home form reads 9W 5D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Anderlecht have taken 1.61 points per game from 18 outings (8W 5D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Antwerp are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 2.03 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Current Season
Anderlecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 19W 7D 10L in their last 36 games (1.78 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 18W 11D 7L in their last 36 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Anderlecht away?
Antwerp's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 1.78 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Antwerp or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 21 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antwerp have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Anderlecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Antwerp
4
Draws
5
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 1, Anderlecht have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2025, when Antwerp 2-2 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Antwerp see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 56%, Anderlecht 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Antwerp) and 56% (Anderlecht).
On the defensive side: Antwerp keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Anderlecht in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play Anderlecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Antwerp's recent matches and 50% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antwerp vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Antwerp's recent games and 56% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antwerp and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Anderlecht run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Antwerp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat Antwerp 0-4 at Bosuilstadion, Championship Round - 3, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.12 xG and Anderlecht 1.44 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Antwerp fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Anderlecht outscored their 1.44 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 0.95 / defence 1.05 against Anderlecht attack 1.05 / defence 0.96, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 29% | Draw 26% | Anderlecht 45%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 47%, Anderlecht 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Anderlecht's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.78 PPG, Anderlecht 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Anderlecht win broke the near-deadlock. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Anderlecht (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.