Anderlecht 3-2 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Anderlecht at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Anderlecht vs Zulte Waregem encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Anderlecht and Zulte Waregem meet at Lotto Park in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 December 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Anderlecht's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Anderlecht have posted 3W 4D 1L at Lotto Park — 1.62 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Zulte Waregem (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 2W 3D 2L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.29 PPG). Away from home they average 1.57 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Anderlecht's favour (1.50 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Anderlecht register both teams scoring in 88% of relevant games, Zulte Waregem in 86%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Anderlecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 31% of cases; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Zulte Waregem goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Anderlecht 75% and Zulte Waregem 81% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Anderlecht 56% | Zulte Waregem 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 2.06 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 1.295 / defence 1.163 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.852 / defence 1.291. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.483. Anderlecht carry an above-average attack strength of 1.295 — their λ of 2.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Zulte Waregem bring a strong defensive rating of 1.291 — this is suppressing Anderlecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Anderlecht games / 16 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 51% | Draw 21% | Zulte Waregem 27%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 1.96 | Draw 4.76 | Zulte Waregem 3.70. Anderlecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Anderlecht are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.53 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Anderlecht 88% | Zulte Waregem 86% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 51% | Draw 21% | Zulte Waregem 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Anderlecht 2.06 / Zulte Waregem 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 1.295 / def 1.163 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.852 / def 1.291 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Zulte Waregem xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Anderlecht vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
Anderlecht vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs Zulte Waregem?
Anderlecht 3 - 2 Zulte Waregem.
Where is Anderlecht vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs Zulte Waregem part of?
Anderlecht vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 51% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 27% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Anderlecht and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will Anderlecht vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Zulte Waregem?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Anderlecht and Zulte Waregem in?
Anderlecht (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Anderlecht's attack rating (1.29) and Zulte Waregem's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 2.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zulte Waregem's attack (0.85x) against Anderlecht's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
51%
1.95
21%
4.70
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
3.53
1.47
Zulte Waregem xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
13%
7.84
Win to Nil
12%
8.50
4%
28.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Anderlecht and 1.47 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 16 outings, Anderlecht have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 6W 7D 3L record — W-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zulte Waregem's form line: 4W 5D 7L from 16 games, 1.06 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-W. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Anderlecht are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zulte Waregem.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Anderlecht have posted 1.86 PPG from 7 outings (3W 4D 0L).
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 2W 3D 2L from 7 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Anderlecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Anderlecht are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.56 scored and 2.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Anderlecht have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Zulte Waregem in 81%.
Last 16 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Anderlecht and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 6W 7D 3L in their last 16 games (1.56 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 4W 5D 7L in their last 16 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Anderlecht's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 1.86 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Anderlecht have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Zulte Waregem — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Anderlecht
0
Draws
3
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Zulte Waregem?
From 6 meetings on record, Anderlecht have won 3, Zulte Waregem have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Zulte Waregem 2-4 Anderlecht.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 86% for Anderlecht, 86% for Zulte Waregem — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Anderlecht) and 57% (Zulte Waregem). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Anderlecht play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Anderlecht's games and 86% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Anderlecht vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Anderlecht's matches and 57% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do Anderlecht and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
Anderlecht have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Anderlecht edge out Zulte Waregem 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat Zulte Waregem 3-2 at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 2.06 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.47 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Anderlecht beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.29 / defence 1.16 against Zulte Waregem attack 0.85 / defence 1.29, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 51% | Draw 21% | Zulte Waregem 27%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 56%, Zulte Waregem 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 78%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Anderlecht arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.