Anderlecht 1-3 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Anderlecht at 38%, yet in-form Union St. Gilloise provide a compelling counter-argument — this Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Championship Group - 35 sees Union St. Gilloise travel to Lotto Park to take on Anderlecht. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 April 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Anderlecht stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Anderlecht have posted 6W 2D 2L at Lotto Park — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Anderlecht are significantly better at Lotto Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Union St. Gilloise have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Union St. Gilloise's away record: 3W 6D 1L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Union St. Gilloise are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Anderlecht register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Union St. Gilloise in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Union St. Gilloise, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Anderlecht.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.1 per contest from 7 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Anderlecht winning.
It is worth noting that Union St. Gilloise have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Anderlecht trading profile (74 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (74 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Anderlecht 42% versus Union St. Gilloise 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 47% | Union St. Gilloise 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 1.21 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 1.164 / defence 0.903 | Union St. Gilloise attack 0.940 / defence 0.780. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.321. Union St. Gilloise's defence strength of 0.780 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 60 Anderlecht games / 60 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 38% | Draw 28% | Union St. Gilloise 34%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Union St. Gilloise 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Anderlecht as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Union St. Gilloise (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Anderlecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Anderlecht 60% | Union St. Gilloise 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Group - 35 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Apr 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 38% | Draw 28% | Union St. Gilloise 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Anderlecht 1.21 / Union St. Gilloise 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 1.164 / def 0.903 | Union St. Gilloise attack 0.940 / def 0.780 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Union St. Gilloise xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Anderlecht 1 - 3 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise is a Championship Group - 35 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 38% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (7 meetings): Anderlecht 1W | Draws 2 | Union St. Gilloise 4W.
What form are Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise in?
Anderlecht (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Anderlecht's attack at 1.16x the league average against Union St. Gilloise's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Anderlecht's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
38%
2.63
28%
3.55
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
2.33
1.12
Union St. Gilloise xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
12%
8.06
10%
9.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.9 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Anderlecht and 1.12 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Anderlecht's recent record stands at 32W 15D 27L from 74 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 46W 21D 7L across 74 games — 2.15 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Anderlecht heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Anderlecht have managed 18W 8D 10L from 36 games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 16W 15D 5L across 36 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Anderlecht are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.69 scored and 0.62 conceded.
Defensively: Anderlecht have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Union St. Gilloise in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Current Season
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 32W 15D 27L in their last 74 games (1.50 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 46W 21D 7L in their last 74 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 1.72 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Anderlecht or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Anderlecht have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Union St. Gilloise have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 May 2026, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Anderlecht's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Anderlecht
2
Draws
7
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Anderlecht have won 1, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 3-0 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Anderlecht 44%, Union St. Gilloise 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Anderlecht) and 36% (Union St. Gilloise).
On the defensive side: Anderlecht keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Union St. Gilloise in 42%; Union St. Gilloise in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Anderlecht play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Anderlecht's recent matches and 50% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Anderlecht's recent games and 36% of Union St. Gilloise's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Anderlecht have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Anderlecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Anderlecht 1-3 at Lotto Park, Championship Group - 35, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.21 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.12 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.16 / defence 0.90 against Union St. Gilloise attack 0.94 / defence 0.78, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 38% | Draw 28% | Union St. Gilloise 34%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Union St. Gilloise win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 47%, Union St. Gilloise 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.50. Form held, and they took the win. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.