Anderlecht 0-2 Cercle Brugge – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Anderlecht at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Anderlecht vs Cercle Brugge fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Cercle Brugge travel to Lotto Park to take on Anderlecht. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 26 January 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Anderlecht stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Anderlecht's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 games at Lotto Park this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Cercle Brugge have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cercle Brugge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cercle Brugge away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Anderlecht) versus 2.20 (Cercle Brugge). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Anderlecht in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 26% of cases; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Cercle Brugge in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Anderlecht 65% and Cercle Brugge 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 56% | Cercle Brugge 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 1.56 xG and Cercle Brugge 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 1.212 / defence 1.101 | Cercle Brugge attack 0.936 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.182 / away 1.502. Data: 23 Anderlecht games / 23 Cercle Brugge games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 38% | Draw 25% | Cercle Brugge 37%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Cercle Brugge 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Anderlecht are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Anderlecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Anderlecht 80% | Cercle Brugge 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs Cercle Brugge | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Jan 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 38% | Draw 25% | Cercle Brugge 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Anderlecht 1.56 / Cercle Brugge 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 1.212 / def 1.101 | Cercle Brugge attack 0.936 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.182 / away 1.502 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Cercle Brugge xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Anderlecht vs Cercle Brugge kick off?
Anderlecht vs Cercle Brugge kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 26 January 2022 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs Cercle Brugge?
Anderlecht 0 - 2 Cercle Brugge.
Where is Anderlecht vs Cercle Brugge being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs Cercle Brugge part of?
Anderlecht vs Cercle Brugge is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs Cercle Brugge?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 38% chance of winning, Cercle Brugge a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Cercle Brugge?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Anderlecht and Cercle Brugge will score (BTTS).
Will Anderlecht vs Cercle Brugge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Cercle Brugge?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Anderlecht and Cercle Brugge in?
Anderlecht (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Cercle Brugge (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Anderlecht's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Cercle Brugge's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Cercle Brugge's attack versus Anderlecht's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
38%
2.66
25%
3.95
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
3.11
1.55
Cercle Brugge xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
8%
12.50
8%
12.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.8 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs Cercle Brugge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and Cercle Brugge expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Anderlecht and 1.55 for Cercle Brugge, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs Cercle Brugge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Anderlecht's recent record stands at 11W 9D 3L from 23 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cercle Brugge, meanwhile, have gone 9W 4D 10L across 23 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Cercle Brugge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Anderlecht by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cercle Brugge heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Anderlecht have managed 5W 5D 1L from 11 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cercle Brugge's away record stands at 5W 2D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Anderlecht are averaging 2.26 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Cercle Brugge are on 1.43 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Anderlecht have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Cercle Brugge in 65%.
Last 23 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Blended
Cercle Brugge
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Anderlecht and Cercle Brugge in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 11W 9D 3L in their last 23 games (1.83 PPG), while Cercle Brugge have gone 9W 4D 10L in their last 23 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or Cercle Brugge away?
Anderlecht's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 1.82 PPG; Cercle Brugge away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2024, when Anderlecht won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Anderlecht's record when hosting Cercle Brugge specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Anderlecht
1
Draws
2
Cercle Brugge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Cercle Brugge?
From 10 meetings on record, Anderlecht have won 7, Cercle Brugge have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and Cercle Brugge last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Anderlecht 2-3 Cercle Brugge.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and Cercle Brugge?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Cercle Brugge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Anderlecht at 82%, Cercle Brugge at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Anderlecht) and 54% (Cercle Brugge).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / Cercle Brugge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Anderlecht play Cercle Brugge?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Anderlecht's games and 73% of Cercle Brugge's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Anderlecht vs Cercle Brugge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Anderlecht's recent games and 54% of Cercle Brugge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Anderlecht and Cercle Brugge tend to score early?
Anderlecht have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Cercle Brugge in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cercle Brugge cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Anderlecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cercle Brugge beat Anderlecht 0-2 at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.56 xG and Cercle Brugge 1.55 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Anderlecht fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.21 / defence 1.10 against Cercle Brugge attack 0.94 / defence 1.09, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 38% | Draw 25% | Cercle Brugge 37%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Cercle Brugge win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 56%, Cercle Brugge 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Cercle Brugge's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Anderlecht arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.35. Form was overturned, with Cercle Brugge winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Cercle Brugge (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.