SK Beveren 2-1 RSC Anderlecht II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SK Beveren (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SK Beveren face RSC Anderlecht II.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
RSC Anderlecht II make the trip to Freethiel Stadion to face SK Beveren in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Friday 12 December 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
SK Beveren (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Beveren at Freethiel Stadion this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
RSC Anderlecht II's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for RSC Anderlecht II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, RSC Anderlecht II have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward SK Beveren. A 1.50 PPG lead over RSC Anderlecht II (2.40 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours SK Beveren, who have won 6 of the last 8 meetings against RSC Anderlecht II — a 2D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2025, ended 4–0 with SK Beveren winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SK Beveren and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
SK Beveren half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
RSC Anderlecht II half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 43% versus RSC Anderlecht II 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 50% | RSC Anderlecht II 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.44 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.060 / defence 0.710 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.865 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.347. SK Beveren's defence rating of 0.710 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 SK Beveren games / 44 RSC Anderlecht II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 51% | Draw 28% | RSC Anderlecht II 21%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | RSC Anderlecht II 4.76. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SK Beveren are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SK Beveren if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: SK Beveren 60% | RSC Anderlecht II 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs RSC Anderlecht II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Freethiel Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 51% | Draw 28% | RSC Anderlecht II 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG SK Beveren 1.44 / RSC Anderlecht II 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.060 / def 0.710 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.865 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
0.83
RSC Anderlecht II xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs RSC Anderlecht II kick off?
SK Beveren vs RSC Anderlecht II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 December 2025 at Freethiel Stadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs RSC Anderlecht II?
SK Beveren 2 - 1 RSC Anderlecht II.
Where is SK Beveren vs RSC Anderlecht II being played?
The match is being played at Freethiel Stadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs RSC Anderlecht II part of?
SK Beveren vs RSC Anderlecht II is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 51% chance of winning, RSC Anderlecht II a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both SK Beveren and RSC Anderlecht II will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs RSC Anderlecht II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and RSC Anderlecht II?
Record (8 meetings): SK Beveren 6W | Draws 2 | RSC Anderlecht II 0W.
What form are SK Beveren and RSC Anderlecht II in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. RSC Anderlecht II (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SK Beveren's attack at 1.06x the league average against RSC Anderlecht II's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — RSC Anderlecht II's attack (0.86x) against SK Beveren's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
51%
1.97
28%
3.57
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.27
0.83
RSC Anderlecht II xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
5%
19.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.4 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and RSC Anderlecht II expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for SK Beveren and 0.83 for RSC Anderlecht II, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SK Beveren come into this having played 44 games, going 25W 11D 8L for 1.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, RSC Anderlecht II sit at 0.82 PPG from 44 outings (7W 15D 22L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for RSC Anderlecht II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SK Beveren carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.13 PPG clear of RSC Anderlecht II — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
SK Beveren's home form reads 13W 6D 3L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.05 PPG return.
Away from home, RSC Anderlecht II have taken 0.77 points per game from 22 outings (3W 8D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SK Beveren are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; RSC Anderlecht II are on 1.39 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RSC Anderlecht II in 66%.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
RSC Anderlecht II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and RSC Anderlecht II in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 25W 11D 8L in their last 44 games (1.95 PPG), while RSC Anderlecht II have gone 7W 15D 22L in their last 44 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or RSC Anderlecht II away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.05 PPG; RSC Anderlecht II away: 0.77 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or RSC Anderlecht II been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, RSC Anderlecht II in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SK Beveren have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SK Beveren won 0-5 on 4 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SK Beveren have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against RSC Anderlecht II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
SK Beveren
2
Draws
0
RSC Anderlecht II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and RSC Anderlecht II?
From 10 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 8, RSC Anderlecht II have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and RSC Anderlecht II last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when RSC Anderlecht II 0-5 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and RSC Anderlecht II?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
RSC Anderlecht II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 46%, RSC Anderlecht II 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SK Beveren) and 54% (RSC Anderlecht II).
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; RSC Anderlecht II in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / RSC Anderlecht II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play RSC Anderlecht II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 59% of RSC Anderlecht II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Beveren vs RSC Anderlecht II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of SK Beveren's recent games and 54% of RSC Anderlecht II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SK Beveren and RSC Anderlecht II tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, RSC Anderlecht II in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SK Beveren edge out RSC Anderlecht II 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat RSC Anderlecht II 2-1 at Freethiel Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.44 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 0.83 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.06 / defence 0.71 against RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.86 / defence 1.02, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 51% | Draw 28% | RSC Anderlecht II 21%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 50%, RSC Anderlecht II 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.82. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.