SK Beveren 1-1 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SK Beveren at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Beveren vs Lommel United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SK Beveren host Lommel United at Freethielstadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 March 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SK Beveren stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SK Beveren have posted 6W 0D 4L at Freethielstadion — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lommel United — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lommel United's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, SK Beveren have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SK Beveren register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Lommel United in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, SK Beveren have won 0, Lommel United 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
SK Beveren trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Lommel United trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 58% versus Lommel United 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 67% | Lommel United 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.58 xG and Lommel United 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.179 / defence 1.212 | Lommel United attack 0.797 / defence 1.336. League average goals — home 1.000 / away 1.256. Lommel United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.336 — this is suppressing SK Beveren's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 SK Beveren games / 24 Lommel United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 46% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 29%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Lommel United 3.45. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SK Beveren offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 70% | Lommel United 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Lommel United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 46% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG SK Beveren 1.58 / Lommel United 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.179 / def 1.212 | Lommel United attack 0.797 / def 1.336 | league avg home 1.000 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Lommel United xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Lommel United kick off?
SK Beveren vs Lommel United kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
SK Beveren 1 - 1 Lommel United.
Where is SK Beveren vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Lommel United part of?
SK Beveren vs Lommel United is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 46% chance of winning, Lommel United a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SK Beveren and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Lommel United?
Record (1 meetings): SK Beveren 0W | Draws 1 | Lommel United 0W.
What form are SK Beveren and Lommel United in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Lommel United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SK Beveren's attack rating (1.18) and Lommel United's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lommel United's attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
46%
2.18
25%
4.02
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.79
1.21
Lommel United xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
6%
16.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.8 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.21 for Lommel United, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SK Beveren's recent record stands at 11W 4D 9L from 24 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lommel United, meanwhile, have gone 6W 7D 11L across 24 games — 1.04 PPG, with W-D-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SK Beveren by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lommel United heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SK Beveren have managed 6W 0D 6L from 12 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lommel United's away record stands at 3W 3D 6L across 12 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SK Beveren are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.29 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
Lommel United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Lommel United in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 11W 4D 9L in their last 24 games (1.54 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 6W 7D 11L in their last 24 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Lommel United away?
SK Beveren's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 1.50 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SK Beveren and Lommel United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
SK Beveren's record when hosting Lommel United specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SK Beveren
4
Draws
2
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Lommel United?
From 10 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 4, Lommel United have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when SK Beveren 2-0 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Lommel United?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 58%, Lommel United 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (SK Beveren) and 58% (Lommel United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Lommel United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of SK Beveren's games and 58% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SK Beveren vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of SK Beveren's matches and 58% of Lommel United's.
Do SK Beveren and Lommel United tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SK Beveren and Lommel United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren and Lommel United finished level at 1-1 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.58 xG and Lommel United 1.21 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.18 / defence 1.21 against Lommel United attack 0.80 / defence 1.34, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 46% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 29%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 67%, Lommel United 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Lommel United's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.