RWDM 2-1 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zulte Waregem at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as RWDM face Zulte Waregem.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Zulte Waregem make the trip to Edmond Machtensstadion to face RWDM in Challenger Pro League (matchday 10). The match kicks off on Friday 1 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
RWDM's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
RWDM's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Zulte Waregem have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Zulte Waregem away from home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from RWDM's last 10 home games and Zulte Waregem's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of RWDM's games and 70% of Zulte Waregem's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
RWDM — key trading statistics (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Zulte Waregem — key trading statistics (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RWDM 63% and Zulte Waregem 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RWDM 66% | Zulte Waregem 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: RWDM surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Zulte Waregem have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RWDM 1.39 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RWDM attack 1.204 / defence 1.022 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.256 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.315. Zulte Waregem have an above-average attack rating of 1.256, which lifts their away xG to 1.69. Data: built from RWDM's last 9 games and Zulte Waregem's last 39.
Result probabilities: RWDM 32% | Draw 24% | Zulte Waregem 44%. Fair-value odds: RWDM 3.16 | Draw 4.19 | Zulte Waregem 2.25. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.39 / 1.69) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zulte Waregem as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zulte Waregem if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (RWDM's last 10 home games and Zulte Waregem's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: RWDM 70% (last 10 home games) | Zulte Waregem 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RWDM vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 10 | Venue: Edmond Machtensstadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RWDM 32% | Draw 24% | Zulte Waregem 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG RWDM 1.39 / Zulte Waregem 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: RWDM attack 1.204 / def 1.022 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.256 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
RWDM xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Zulte Waregem xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ RWDM vs Zulte Waregem FAQs
What time does RWDM vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
RWDM vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 1 November 2024 at Edmond Machtensstadion.
What was the final score in RWDM vs Zulte Waregem?
RWDM 2 - 1 Zulte Waregem.
Where is RWDM vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Edmond Machtensstadion.
What competition is RWDM vs Zulte Waregem part of?
RWDM vs Zulte Waregem is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 10) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RWDM vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives RWDM a 32% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in RWDM vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both RWDM and Zulte Waregem will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will RWDM vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
RWDM's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Zulte Waregem's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Zulte Waregem's attack (1.26x) against RWDM's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from RWDM's last 9 games and Zulte Waregem's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
32%
3.16
24%
4.19
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
RWDM xG
Total xG
3.08
1.69
Zulte Waregem xG
3.16
32%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
18%
5.41
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
6%
17.12
11%
9.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ RWDM vs Zulte Waregem Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for RWDM vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are RWDM and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for RWDM and 1.69 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for RWDM vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
RWDM's recent record stands at 11W 11D 19L from 41 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Zulte Waregem, meanwhile, have gone 21W 9D 11L across 41 games — 1.76 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zulte Waregem by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over RWDM heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, RWDM have managed 5W 8D 7L from their last 20 home games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zulte Waregem's away record stands at 14W 3D 3L across their last 20 away games, a 2.25 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.76 PPG overall record — Zulte Waregem travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zulte Waregem come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
RWDM are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.68 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RWDM have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RWDM
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
RWDM (Home) vs Zulte Waregem (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
RWDM
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
❓ RWDM vs Zulte Waregem Form FAQs
What form are RWDM and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
RWDM have gone 11W 11D 19L in their last 41 games (1.07 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 21W 9D 11L in their last 41 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RWDM at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Zulte Waregem's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RWDM at home: 1.15 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 2.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between RWDM and Zulte Waregem, the earliest from November 2024. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 18 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
RWDM
0
Draws
1
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ RWDM vs Zulte Waregem H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between RWDM and Zulte Waregem?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, RWDM have won 1, Zulte Waregem have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did RWDM and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2025: Zulte Waregem 2-1 RWDM.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
RWDM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RWDM 65%, Zulte Waregem 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for RWDM and 65% for Zulte Waregem. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zulte Waregem in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RWDM home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ RWDM vs Zulte Waregem Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in RWDM and Zulte Waregem matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of RWDM's games and 60% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are RWDM and Zulte Waregem matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of RWDM's matches and 65% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do RWDM and Zulte Waregem matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of RWDM's recent matches and 65% of Zulte Waregem's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as RWDM defy the odds to beat Zulte Waregem 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RWDM beat Zulte Waregem 2-1 at Edmond Machtensstadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RWDM 1.39 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.69 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RWDM attack 1.20 / defence 1.02 against Zulte Waregem attack 1.26 / defence 0.88, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RWDM 32% | Draw 24% | Zulte Waregem 44%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual RWDM win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RWDM 66%, Zulte Waregem 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RWDM's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with RWDM winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.