RSC Anderlecht II 2-0 K. Lierse S.K. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RSC Anderlecht II at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as RSC Anderlecht II face K. Lierse S.K..
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
RSC Anderlecht II host K. Lierse S.K. at Stade Roi Baudouin in Challenger Pro League (matchday 13). Kick-off is Saturday 30 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
RSC Anderlecht II — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
RSC Anderlecht II's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, K. Lierse S.K. have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
K. Lierse S.K.'s form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: RSC Anderlecht II 1.00 PPG, K. Lierse S.K. 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 90% of RSC Anderlecht II's games and 60% of K. Lierse S.K.'s (from RSC Anderlecht II's last 10 home games and K. Lierse S.K.'s last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for RSC Anderlecht II, 1 for K. Lierse S.K. and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 13 Apr 2024, ended RSC Anderlecht II 1–1 K. Lierse S.K. — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
RSC Anderlecht II in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
K. Lierse S.K. in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 95% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RSC Anderlecht II 71% and K. Lierse S.K. 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (RSC Anderlecht II 60% | K. Lierse S.K. 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RSC Anderlecht II 1.89 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.082 / defence 1.215 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.972 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.441. K. Lierse S.K.'s defence rating of 1.215 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing RSC Anderlecht II's projected output up. RSC Anderlecht II's defence rating of 1.215 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing K. Lierse S.K.'s projected output up. Data: built from RSC Anderlecht II's last 42 games and K. Lierse S.K.'s last 42.
Result probabilities: RSC Anderlecht II 43% | Draw 22% | K. Lierse S.K. 35%. Fair-value odds: RSC Anderlecht II 2.34 | Draw 4.57 | K. Lierse S.K. 2.83. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (1.89 / 1.70) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RSC Anderlecht II at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RSC Anderlecht II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.59 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (RSC Anderlecht II's last 10 home games and K. Lierse S.K.'s last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: RSC Anderlecht II 90% (last 10 home games) | K. Lierse S.K. 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RSC Anderlecht II vs K. Lierse S.K. | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 13 | Venue: Stade Roi Baudouin • Kick-off: Saturday 30 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RSC Anderlecht II 43% | Draw 22% | K. Lierse S.K. 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG RSC Anderlecht II 1.89 / K. Lierse S.K. 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.082 / def 1.215 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.972 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: RSC Anderlecht II (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
RSC Anderlecht II xG
Expected Goals
1.70
K. Lierse S.K. xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ RSC Anderlecht II vs K. Lierse S.K. FAQs
What time does RSC Anderlecht II vs K. Lierse S.K. kick off?
RSC Anderlecht II vs K. Lierse S.K. kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Stade Roi Baudouin.
What was the final score in RSC Anderlecht II vs K. Lierse S.K.?
RSC Anderlecht II 2 - 0 K. Lierse S.K..
Where is RSC Anderlecht II vs K. Lierse S.K. being played?
The match is being played at Stade Roi Baudouin.
What competition is RSC Anderlecht II vs K. Lierse S.K. part of?
RSC Anderlecht II vs K. Lierse S.K. is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 13) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RSC Anderlecht II vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our statistical model gives RSC Anderlecht II a 43% chance of winning, K. Lierse S.K. a 35% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making RSC Anderlecht II the favourite.
Will both teams score in RSC Anderlecht II vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both RSC Anderlecht II and K. Lierse S.K. will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will RSC Anderlecht II vs K. Lierse S.K. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
RSC Anderlecht II's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against K. Lierse S.K.'s defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. The same calculation in reverse, K. Lierse S.K.'s attack versus RSC Anderlecht II's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from RSC Anderlecht II's last 42 games and K. Lierse S.K.'s last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RSC Anderlecht II Win
43%
2.34
22%
4.57
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
RSC Anderlecht II xG
Total xG
3.59
1.70
K. Lierse S.K. xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
18%
5.48
15%
6.59
Win to Nil
8%
12.82
5%
18.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 8.9 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ RSC Anderlecht II vs K. Lierse S.K. Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for RSC Anderlecht II vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are RSC Anderlecht II and K. Lierse S.K. expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for RSC Anderlecht II and 1.70 for K. Lierse S.K., a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for RSC Anderlecht II vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RSC Anderlecht II's recent record stands at 10W 14D 18L from 42 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-W in the last five.
K. Lierse S.K., meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 19L across 42 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-L-D-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: RSC Anderlecht II on 1.05 PPG, K. Lierse S.K. on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, RSC Anderlecht II have managed 3W 7D 10L from their last 20 home games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
K. Lierse S.K.'s away record stands at 5W 5D 10L across their last 20 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
RSC Anderlecht II are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; K. Lierse S.K. are on 1.55 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RSC Anderlecht II have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; K. Lierse S.K. in 67%.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RSC Anderlecht II
Blended
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
RSC Anderlecht II (Home) vs K. Lierse S.K. (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
RSC Anderlecht II
Blended
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
❓ RSC Anderlecht II vs K. Lierse S.K. Form FAQs
What form are RSC Anderlecht II and K. Lierse S.K. in coming into this match?
RSC Anderlecht II have gone 10W 14D 18L in their last 42 games (1.05 PPG), while K. Lierse S.K. have gone 14W 9D 19L in their last 42 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RSC Anderlecht II at home or K. Lierse S.K. away?
K. Lierse S.K.'s away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RSC Anderlecht II at home: 0.80 PPG; K. Lierse S.K. away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2023. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 4 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
RSC Anderlecht II's record when hosting K. Lierse S.K. specifically: 2W 4D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
RSC Anderlecht II
5
Draws
3
K. Lierse S.K.
Recent Meetings
❓ RSC Anderlecht II vs K. Lierse S.K. H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between RSC Anderlecht II and K. Lierse S.K.?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, RSC Anderlecht II have won 2, K. Lierse S.K. have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did RSC Anderlecht II and K. Lierse S.K. last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 November 2026: RSC Anderlecht II 1-0 K. Lierse S.K..
Who has won more matches between RSC Anderlecht II and K. Lierse S.K.?
K. Lierse S.K. have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RSC Anderlecht II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 71% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — RSC Anderlecht II at 80%, K. Lierse S.K. at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for RSC Anderlecht II and 70% for K. Lierse S.K.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RSC Anderlecht II home games / K. Lierse S.K. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ RSC Anderlecht II vs K. Lierse S.K. Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in RSC Anderlecht II and K. Lierse S.K. matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of RSC Anderlecht II's games and 60% of K. Lierse S.K.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are RSC Anderlecht II and K. Lierse S.K. matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of RSC Anderlecht II's matches and 70% of K. Lierse S.K.'s.
Do RSC Anderlecht II and K. Lierse S.K. matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of RSC Anderlecht II's recent matches and 95% of K. Lierse S.K.'s — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RSC Anderlecht II cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over K. Lierse S.K..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RSC Anderlecht II beat K. Lierse S.K. 2-0 at Stade Roi Baudouin, Regular Season - 13, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RSC Anderlecht II 1.89 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.70 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. K. Lierse S.K. landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.08 / defence 1.22 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.97 / defence 1.22, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RSC Anderlecht II 43% | Draw 22% | K. Lierse S.K. 35%, with RSC Anderlecht II to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RSC Anderlecht II 60%, K. Lierse S.K. 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RSC Anderlecht II 1.05 PPG, K. Lierse S.K. 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RSC Anderlecht II win broke the near-deadlock. RSC Anderlecht II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.