Patro Eisden 2-1 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SK Beveren at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Patro Eisden and SK Beveren meet at Patro Stadion in Challenger Pro League (matchday 3). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Patro Eisden's record over their last 2 games: 1W 0D 1L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
SK Beveren have collected 2.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. SK Beveren are 0.80 PPG clear of Patro Eisden over their recent games (2.30 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Patro Eisden 1.41 xG and SK Beveren 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Patro Eisden attack 1.120 / defence 1.059 | SK Beveren attack 0.816 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.674. Data: built from Patro Eisden's last 2 games and SK Beveren's last 24. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Patro Eisden 37% | Draw 25% | SK Beveren 38%. Fair-value odds: Patro Eisden 2.73 | Draw 4.00 | SK Beveren 2.61. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SK Beveren at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SK Beveren if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Patro Eisden's last 2 games and SK Beveren's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's sample (Patro Eisden 2 games, SK Beveren 24) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 3 | Venue: Patro Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Patro Eisden 37% | Draw 25% | SK Beveren 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Patro Eisden 1.41 / SK Beveren 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Patro Eisden attack 1.120 / def 1.059 | SK Beveren attack 0.816 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.674 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Patro Eisden xG
Expected Goals
1.45
SK Beveren xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren FAQs
What time does Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren kick off?
Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Patro Stadion.
What was the final score in Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren?
Patro Eisden 2 - 1 SK Beveren.
Where is Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Patro Stadion.
What competition is Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren part of?
Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 3) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives Patro Eisden a 37% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Patro Eisden and SK Beveren will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Patro Eisden's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against SK Beveren's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — SK Beveren's attack (0.82x) against Patro Eisden's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from Patro Eisden's last 2 games and SK Beveren's last 24, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
37%
2.73
25%
4.00
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Patro Eisden xG
Total xG
2.86
1.45
SK Beveren xG
2.73
37%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
9%
11.61
9%
10.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.7 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Patro Eisden and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Patro Eisden and 1.45 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 2 outings, Patro Eisden have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 1W 0D 1L record — W-L across the most recent five.
SK Beveren's form line: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-D.
Put side by side, Patro Eisden are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SK Beveren.
Attack vs Defence
Patro Eisden are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 0.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. Patro Eisden's scoring rate against SK Beveren's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Patro Eisden have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Patro Eisden
Early Season
SK Beveren
Early Season
Patro Eisden (Home) vs SK Beveren (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Patro Eisden
Early Season
SK Beveren
Early Season
❓ Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren Form FAQs
What form are Patro Eisden and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
Patro Eisden have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Patro Eisden and SK Beveren, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
SK Beveren have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SK Beveren won Patro Eisden 1-4 SK Beveren on 22 Feb 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Patro Eisden have gone 2W 0D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SK Beveren — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Patro Eisden
1
Draws
3
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and SK Beveren?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Patro Eisden have won 4, SK Beveren have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Patro Eisden and SK Beveren last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: Patro Eisden 1-4 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between Patro Eisden and SK Beveren?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Patro Eisden home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Patro Eisden and SK Beveren matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Patro Eisden's games and 50% of SK Beveren's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Patro Eisden and SK Beveren matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Patro Eisden's recent games and 0% of SK Beveren's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Patro Eisden and SK Beveren matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Patro Eisden's recent matches and 100% of SK Beveren's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Patro Eisden defy the odds to beat SK Beveren 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Patro Eisden beat SK Beveren 2-1 at Patro Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.41 xG and SK Beveren 1.45 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 1.12 / defence 1.06 against SK Beveren attack 0.82 / defence 0.99, drawn from 2/24 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 37% | Draw 25% | SK Beveren 38%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Patro Eisden win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 100%, SK Beveren 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SK Beveren shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.