Patro Eisden 3-3 K. Lierse S.K. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Patro Eisden at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Patro Eisden vs K. Lierse S.K. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Patro Eisden host K. Lierse S.K. at Patrostadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 November 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Patro Eisden — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Patro Eisden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Patro Eisden's home record at Patrostadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, K. Lierse S.K. have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, K. Lierse S.K. have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Patro Eisden at 1.60 PPG versus K. Lierse S.K.'s 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Patro Eisden register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, K. Lierse S.K. in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Patro Eisden have won 1, K. Lierse S.K. 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2024, ended 3–0 with Patro Eisden winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Patro Eisden trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
K. Lierse S.K. trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Patro Eisden 44% versus K. Lierse S.K. 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Patro Eisden 54% | K. Lierse S.K. 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Patro Eisden 2.04 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Patro Eisden attack 1.270 / defence 0.932 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.834 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.305. Patro Eisden carry an above-average attack strength of 1.270 — their λ of 2.04 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 39 Patro Eisden games / 39 K. Lierse S.K. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Patro Eisden 61% | Draw 21% | K. Lierse S.K. 18%. Fair-value odds: Patro Eisden 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | K. Lierse S.K. 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Patro Eisden (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Patro Eisden at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Patro Eisden 60% | K. Lierse S.K. 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Patro Eisden vs K. Lierse S.K. | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Patrostadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Patro Eisden 61% | Draw 21% | K. Lierse S.K. 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 55% | xG Patro Eisden 2.04 / K. Lierse S.K. 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Patro Eisden attack 1.270 / def 0.932 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.834 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Patro Eisden (61%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Patro Eisden xG
Expected Goals
1.01
K. Lierse S.K. xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Patro Eisden vs K. Lierse S.K. kick off?
Patro Eisden vs K. Lierse S.K. kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Patrostadion.
What was the final score in Patro Eisden vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Patro Eisden 3 - 3 K. Lierse S.K..
Where is Patro Eisden vs K. Lierse S.K. being played?
The match is being played at Patrostadion.
What competition is Patro Eisden vs K. Lierse S.K. part of?
Patro Eisden vs K. Lierse S.K. is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Patro Eisden vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our statistical model gives Patro Eisden a 61% chance of winning, K. Lierse S.K. a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Patro Eisden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Patro Eisden vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Patro Eisden and K. Lierse S.K. will score (BTTS).
Will Patro Eisden vs K. Lierse S.K. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and K. Lierse S.K.?
Record (2 meetings): Patro Eisden 1W | Draws 0 | K. Lierse S.K. 1W.
What form are Patro Eisden and K. Lierse S.K. in?
Patro Eisden (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Patro Eisden vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Patro Eisden's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against K. Lierse S.K.'s defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.04. The same calculation in reverse, K. Lierse S.K.'s attack versus Patro Eisden's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
61%
1.64
21%
4.79
18%
5.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Patro Eisden xG
Total xG
3.05
1.01
K. Lierse S.K. xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
5.51
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
13%
7.65
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
2%
42.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Patro Eisden vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Patro Eisden and K. Lierse S.K. expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Patro Eisden and 1.01 for K. Lierse S.K., a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Patro Eisden vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Patro Eisden's recent record stands at 17W 13D 9L from 39 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Patro Eisden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
K. Lierse S.K., meanwhile, have gone 14W 6D 19L across 39 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for K. Lierse S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Patro Eisden by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over K. Lierse S.K. heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Patro Eisden have managed 9W 4D 6L from 19 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
K. Lierse S.K.'s away record stands at 5W 4D 10L across 19 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Patro Eisden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Patro Eisden are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; K. Lierse S.K. are on 1.49 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: K. Lierse S.K. in 64%.
Defensively: Patro Eisden have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Patro Eisden
Blended
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Patro Eisden and K. Lierse S.K. in coming into this match?
Patro Eisden have gone 17W 13D 9L in their last 39 games (1.64 PPG), while K. Lierse S.K. have gone 14W 6D 19L in their last 39 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Patro Eisden at home or K. Lierse S.K. away?
Patro Eisden's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Patro Eisden at home: 1.63 PPG; K. Lierse S.K. away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Patro Eisden or K. Lierse S.K. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Patro Eisden have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, K. Lierse S.K. in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Patro Eisden and K. Lierse S.K. runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Patro Eisden go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Feb 2024, when Patro Eisden won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Patro Eisden's record when hosting K. Lierse S.K. specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Patro Eisden
1
Draws
2
K. Lierse S.K.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and K. Lierse S.K.?
From 6 meetings on record, Patro Eisden have won 3, K. Lierse S.K. have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Patro Eisden and K. Lierse S.K. last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when K. Lierse S.K. 1-2 Patro Eisden.
Who has won more matches between Patro Eisden and K. Lierse S.K.?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Patro Eisden 53%, K. Lierse S.K. 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Patro Eisden and 68% for K. Lierse S.K.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Patro Eisden have failed to score in 32% of games; K. Lierse S.K. in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Patro Eisden home games / K. Lierse S.K. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Patro Eisden play K. Lierse S.K.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Patro Eisden's games and 58% of K. Lierse S.K.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Patro Eisden vs K. Lierse S.K. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Patro Eisden's matches and 68% of K. Lierse S.K.'s.
Do Patro Eisden and K. Lierse S.K. tend to score early?
Patro Eisden have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, K. Lierse S.K. in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Patro Eisden and K. Lierse S.K. share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Patro Eisden and K. Lierse S.K. finished level at 3-3 at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 2.04 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.01 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Patro Eisden beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. K. Lierse S.K. outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 1.27 / defence 0.93 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.83 / defence 1.16, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 61% | Draw 21% | K. Lierse S.K. 18%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 54%, K. Lierse S.K. 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Patro Eisden's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.