Olympic Charleroi 1-1 Liège – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Liège at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympic Charleroi vs Liège encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Liège travel to Stade de la Neuville to take on Olympic Charleroi. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 November 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Olympic Charleroi have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.20 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Olympic Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympic Charleroi's form when playing at home: 0W 0D 6L across 6 games at Stade de la Neuville this term (0.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.17 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Liège — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Liège, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Liège's away record: 6W 0D 4L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Liège are 2.00 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Olympic Charleroi trading profile (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 70% of games.
Liège trading profile (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Olympic Charleroi 30% | Liège 40%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympic Charleroi 50% | Liège 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympic Charleroi 0.48 xG and Liège 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympic Charleroi attack 0.470 / defence 1.389 | Liège attack 0.933 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.451. Olympic Charleroi's attack strength of 0.470 is below the league average — the 0.48 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Liège's defence strength of 0.771 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 10 Olympic Charleroi games / 40 Liège games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympic Charleroi 7% | Draw 23% | Liège 70%. Fair-value odds: Olympic Charleroi 14.29 | Draw 4.35 | Liège 1.43. The model has a clear lean to Liège (70%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Olympic Charleroi's lower xG of 0.48 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Liège are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Olympic Charleroi 17% | Liège 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympic Charleroi vs Liège | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade de la Neuville • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympic Charleroi 7% | Draw 23% | Liège 70% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 34% | xG Olympic Charleroi 0.48 / Liège 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Olympic Charleroi attack 0.470 / def 1.389 | Liège attack 0.933 / def 0.771 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.451 • Poisson stance: Liège (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.48
Olympic Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Liège xG
34%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympic Charleroi vs Liège kick off?
Olympic Charleroi vs Liège kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Stade de la Neuville.
What was the final score in Olympic Charleroi vs Liège?
Olympic Charleroi 1 - 1 Liège.
Where is Olympic Charleroi vs Liège being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Neuville.
What competition is Olympic Charleroi vs Liège part of?
Olympic Charleroi vs Liège is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Olympic Charleroi vs Liège?
Our statistical model gives Olympic Charleroi a 7% chance of winning, Liège a 70% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Liège the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympic Charleroi vs Liège?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Olympic Charleroi and Liège will score (BTTS).
Will Olympic Charleroi vs Liège have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympic Charleroi and Liège?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Olympic Charleroi and Liège in?
Olympic Charleroi (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Liège (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Olympic Charleroi's attack rating (0.47) and Liège's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 0.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Liège's attack versus Olympic Charleroi's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.6%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Liège Win
7%
13.74
23%
4.40
70%
1.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
16.7%
Away win
0 – 3
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.48
Olympic Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.36
1.88
Liège xG
13.74
7%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
1.43
70%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.98
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
15%
6.55
62%
1.62
Win to Nil
1%
90.02
43%
2.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 17.8 | 16.7 | 10.5 | 4.9 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.5 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympic Charleroi vs Liège?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Olympic Charleroi and Liège expected to score?
The model projects 0.48 expected goals for Olympic Charleroi and 1.88 for Liège, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympic Charleroi vs Liège?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Olympic Charleroi come into this having played 10 games, going 0W 2D 8L for 0.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Olympic Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Liège sit at 2.20 PPG from 10 outings (7W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Liège is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Liège carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Olympic Charleroi — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Olympic Charleroi's home form reads 0W 0D 4L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Liège have taken 3.00 points per game from 4 outings (4W 0D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 2.20 PPG overall record — Liège travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liège come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Olympic Charleroi are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game recently; Liège are on 1.90 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Olympic Charleroi have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Defensively: Liège in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympic Charleroi
Blended
Liège
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympic Charleroi and Liège in coming into this match?
Olympic Charleroi have gone 0W 2D 8L in their last 10 games (0.20 PPG), while Liège have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympic Charleroi at home or Liège away?
Liège's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympic Charleroi at home: 0.00 PPG; Liège away: 3.00 PPG.
Have Olympic Charleroi or Liège been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympic Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Liège in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Olympic Charleroi
1
Draws
1
Liège
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympic Charleroi and Liège?
From 2 meetings on record, Olympic Charleroi have won 0, Liège have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Olympic Charleroi and Liège last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Liège 2-1 Olympic Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Olympic Charleroi and Liège?
Liège have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Olympic Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Liège are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Olympic Charleroi 0% BTTS, Liège 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Olympic Charleroi and 25% for Liège.
On the defensive side: Liège in 75%; Olympic Charleroi have failed to score in 100% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympic Charleroi home games / Liège away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympic Charleroi play Liège?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Olympic Charleroi's recent matches and 25% of Liège's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympic Charleroi vs Liège usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Olympic Charleroi's recent games and 25% of Liège's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympic Charleroi and Liège tend to score early?
Olympic Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Liège in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Olympic Charleroi and Liège share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de la Neuville, Regular Season - 12, as Olympic Charleroi and Liège drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympic Charleroi 0.48 xG and Liège 1.88 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Liège landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympic Charleroi attack 0.47 / defence 1.39 against Liège attack 0.93 / defence 0.77, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympic Charleroi 7% | Draw 23% | Liège 70%, with Liège to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympic Charleroi 50%, Liège 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did.
Liège's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Liège arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 0.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Olympic Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.