Lommel United 3-1 RSC Anderlecht II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lommel United at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lommel United vs RSC Anderlecht II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Lommel United welcome RSC Anderlecht II to Soeverein Stadion in Challenger Pro League (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 16 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Lommel United have gone 7W 2D 1L — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Lommel United at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.30 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
RSC Anderlecht II — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
RSC Anderlecht II away from home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Lommel United carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Lommel United have won 0, RSC Anderlecht II 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Lommel United 1–1 RSC Anderlecht II — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lommel United in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
RSC Anderlecht II in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 53% versus RSC Anderlecht II 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 60% | RSC Anderlecht II 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.69 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 1.263 / defence 0.782 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.865 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.402. Lommel United carry an above-average attack rating of 1.263 — their 1.69 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Lommel United have a tight defence (rating 0.782), which is pulling RSC Anderlecht II's projected output down. Data: built from Lommel United's last 47 games and RSC Anderlecht II's last 47.
Result probabilities: Lommel United 55% | Draw 24% | RSC Anderlecht II 21%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 1.83 | Draw 4.14 | RSC Anderlecht II 4.74. The model has a clear lean to Lommel United (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lommel United are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lommel United 40% (last 10 home games) | RSC Anderlecht II 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs RSC Anderlecht II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 26 | Venue: Soeverein Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 55% | Draw 24% | RSC Anderlecht II 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Lommel United 1.69 / RSC Anderlecht II 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 1.263 / def 0.782 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.865 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
0.95
RSC Anderlecht II xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lommel United vs RSC Anderlecht II FAQs
What time does Lommel United vs RSC Anderlecht II kick off?
Lommel United vs RSC Anderlecht II kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Soeverein Stadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Lommel United 3 - 1 RSC Anderlecht II.
Where is Lommel United vs RSC Anderlecht II being played?
The match is being played at Soeverein Stadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs RSC Anderlecht II part of?
Lommel United vs RSC Anderlecht II is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 26) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 55% chance of winning, RSC Anderlecht II a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lommel United and RSC Anderlecht II will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Lommel United vs RSC Anderlecht II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lommel United's attack at 1.26x the league average against RSC Anderlecht II's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RSC Anderlecht II's attack versus Lommel United's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lommel United's last 47 games and RSC Anderlecht II's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
55%
1.83
24%
4.14
21%
4.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.63
0.95
RSC Anderlecht II xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
4.74
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
4%
25.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.5 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lommel United vs RSC Anderlecht II Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Lommel United and RSC Anderlecht II expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Lommel United and 0.95 for RSC Anderlecht II, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Lommel United have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 29W 9D 19L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five.
RSC Anderlecht II's form line: 17W 18D 22L from 57 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Lommel United are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against RSC Anderlecht II.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lommel United have posted 1.71 PPG from their last 28 home games (15W 3D 10L).
On the road, RSC Anderlecht II have gone 12W 7D 9L from their last 28 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lommel United are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; RSC Anderlecht II are on 1.37 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RSC Anderlecht II in 61%.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Blended
RSC Anderlecht II
Blended
Lommel United (Home) vs RSC Anderlecht II (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lommel United
Blended
RSC Anderlecht II
Blended
❓ Lommel United vs RSC Anderlecht II Form FAQs
What form are Lommel United and RSC Anderlecht II in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 29W 9D 19L in their last 57 games (1.68 PPG), while RSC Anderlecht II have gone 17W 18D 22L in their last 57 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or RSC Anderlecht II away?
Lommel United's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.71 PPG; RSC Anderlecht II away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Lommel United or RSC Anderlecht II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lommel United have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, RSC Anderlecht II in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2022. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 14 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Feb 2025, when RSC Anderlecht II won RSC Anderlecht II 5-0 Lommel United.
Lommel United's record when hosting RSC Anderlecht II specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Lommel United
3
Draws
2
RSC Anderlecht II
Recent Meetings
❓ Lommel United vs RSC Anderlecht II H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and RSC Anderlecht II?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Lommel United have won 3, RSC Anderlecht II have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and RSC Anderlecht II last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 February 2026: Lommel United 2-0 RSC Anderlecht II.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and RSC Anderlecht II?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
RSC Anderlecht II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 46%, RSC Anderlecht II 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lommel United) and 57% (RSC Anderlecht II).
On the defensive side: Lommel United keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / RSC Anderlecht II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lommel United vs RSC Anderlecht II Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lommel United and RSC Anderlecht II matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Lommel United's recent matches and 61% of RSC Anderlecht II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lommel United and RSC Anderlecht II matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lommel United's recent games and 57% of RSC Anderlecht II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lommel United and RSC Anderlecht II matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Lommel United's recent matches and 68% of RSC Anderlecht II's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lommel United cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over RSC Anderlecht II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lommel United beat RSC Anderlecht II 3-1 at Soeverein Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.69 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 0.95 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lommel United beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 1.26 / defence 0.78 against RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.86 / defence 1.07, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 55% | Draw 24% | RSC Anderlecht II 21%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 60%, RSC Anderlecht II 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lommel United arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Lommel United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm. RSC Anderlecht II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.