Liège 1-1 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lommel United at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Liège vs Lommel United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Liège welcome Lommel United to Stade de Rocourt. Kick-off is set for Friday 4 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Liège — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Liège have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Liège at Stade de Rocourt this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lommel United stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Lommel United have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lommel United's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Liège at 1.50 PPG versus Lommel United's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Liège, 1 for Lommel United and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 1–4 with Lommel United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Liège trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Lommel United trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Liège 53% versus Lommel United 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liège 61% | Lommel United 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Liège 1.38 xG and Lommel United 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liège attack 0.953 / defence 1.170 | Lommel United attack 1.143 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.396. Data: 36 Liège games / 36 Lommel United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Liège 27% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 48%. Fair-value odds: Liège 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Lommel United 2.08. Lommel United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lommel United as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lommel United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Liège 40% | Lommel United 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Liège vs Lommel United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade de Rocourt • Kick-off: Friday 4 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Liège 27% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Liège 1.38 / Lommel United 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Liège attack 0.953 / def 1.170 | Lommel United attack 1.143 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Liège xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Lommel United xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Liège vs Lommel United kick off?
Liège vs Lommel United kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 4 October 2024 at Stade de Rocourt.
What was the final score in Liège vs Lommel United?
Liège 1 - 1 Lommel United.
Where is Liège vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Rocourt.
What competition is Liège vs Lommel United part of?
Liège vs Lommel United is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Liège vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives Liège a 27% chance of winning, Lommel United a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Liège vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Liège and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will Liège vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Liège and Lommel United?
Record (2 meetings): Liège 1W | Draws 0 | Lommel United 1W.
What form are Liège and Lommel United in?
Liège (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Lommel United (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Liège's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Lommel United's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Lommel United's attack versus Liège's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 2-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
27%
3.71
25%
3.94
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Liège xG
Total xG
3.24
1.87
Lommel United xG
3.71
27%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
15%
6.47
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
4%
23.99
12%
8.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Liège vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Liège and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Liège and 1.87 for Lommel United, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Liège vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Liège come into this having played 36 games, going 16W 6D 14L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Liège, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lommel United sit at 1.53 PPG from 36 outings (15W 10D 11L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lommel United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Liège on 1.50 PPG, Lommel United on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Liège's home form reads 9W 3D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Lommel United have taken 1.44 points per game from 18 outings (7W 5D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Liège are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.61 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lommel United in 64%.
Last 36 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Liège
Early Season
Lommel United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Liège and Lommel United in coming into this match?
Liège have gone 16W 6D 14L in their last 36 games (1.50 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 15W 10D 11L in their last 36 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Liège at home or Lommel United away?
Liège's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Liège at home: 1.67 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Liège or Lommel United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Liège have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Lommel United in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Challenger Pro League, Jupiler Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Lommel United have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Mar 2024, when Lommel United won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Liège's record when hosting Lommel United specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Liège
1
Draws
3
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Liège and Lommel United?
From 8 meetings on record, Liège have won 4, Lommel United have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Liège and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Liège 1-2 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between Liège and Lommel United?
Liège have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Liège are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Liège 44%, Lommel United 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Liège and 78% for Lommel United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Liège keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Liège have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Liège home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Liège play Lommel United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Liège's games and 78% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Liège vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Liège's matches and 78% of Lommel United's.
Do Liège and Lommel United tend to score early?
Liège have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Liège and Lommel United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de Rocourt, Regular Season - 7, as Liège and Lommel United drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Liège 1.38 xG and Lommel United 1.87 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Lommel United landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liège attack 0.95 / defence 1.17 against Lommel United attack 1.14 / defence 1.03, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Liège 27% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 48%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liège 61%, Lommel United 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Liège's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Lommel United's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Liège 1.50 PPG, Lommel United 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.