KAA Gent II 1-3 Lokeren-Temse – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lokeren-Temse at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this KAA Gent II vs Lokeren-Temse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
KAA Gent II host Lokeren-Temse at Planet Group Arena in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 December 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, KAA Gent II have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for KAA Gent II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Planet Group Arena, KAA Gent II have gone 1W 3D 3L this season (7 games, 0.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.86 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Planet Group Arena this season.
Lokeren-Temse — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lokeren-Temse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lokeren-Temse have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (KAA Gent II) versus 1.60 (Lokeren-Temse). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
KAA Gent II in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Lokeren-Temse in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KAA Gent II 36% versus Lokeren-Temse 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KAA Gent II 43% | Lokeren-Temse 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KAA Gent II 0.90 xG and Lokeren-Temse 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KAA Gent II attack 0.718 / defence 1.018 | Lokeren-Temse attack 0.853 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.339. KAA Gent II's attack strength of 0.718 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 KAA Gent II games / 43 Lokeren-Temse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KAA Gent II 28% | Draw 31% | Lokeren-Temse 41%. Fair-value odds: KAA Gent II 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Lokeren-Temse 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lokeren-Temse as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lokeren-Temse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: KAA Gent II 43% | Lokeren-Temse 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KAA Gent II vs Lokeren-Temse | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Planet Group Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Dec 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KAA Gent II 28% | Draw 31% | Lokeren-Temse 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG KAA Gent II 0.90 / Lokeren-Temse 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: KAA Gent II attack 0.718 / def 1.018 | Lokeren-Temse attack 0.853 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Lokeren-Temse (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
KAA Gent II xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Lokeren-Temse xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KAA Gent II vs Lokeren-Temse kick off?
KAA Gent II vs Lokeren-Temse kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 7 December 2025 at Planet Group Arena.
What was the final score in KAA Gent II vs Lokeren-Temse?
KAA Gent II 1 - 3 Lokeren-Temse.
Where is KAA Gent II vs Lokeren-Temse being played?
The match is being played at Planet Group Arena.
What competition is KAA Gent II vs Lokeren-Temse part of?
KAA Gent II vs Lokeren-Temse is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KAA Gent II vs Lokeren-Temse?
Our statistical model gives KAA Gent II a 28% chance of winning, Lokeren-Temse a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lokeren-Temse the favourite.
Will both teams score in KAA Gent II vs Lokeren-Temse?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both KAA Gent II and Lokeren-Temse will score (BTTS).
Will KAA Gent II vs Lokeren-Temse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between KAA Gent II and Lokeren-Temse?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are KAA Gent II and Lokeren-Temse in?
KAA Gent II (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Lokeren-Temse (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates KAA Gent II's attack at 0.72x the league average against Lokeren-Temse's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lokeren-Temse's attack versus KAA Gent II's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lokeren-Temse Win
28%
3.60
31%
3.23
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
KAA Gent II xG
Total xG
2.06
1.16
Lokeren-Temse xG
3.60
28%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
9%
11.51
17%
5.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 14.8 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KAA Gent II vs Lokeren-Temse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are KAA Gent II and Lokeren-Temse expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for KAA Gent II and 1.16 for Lokeren-Temse, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for KAA Gent II vs Lokeren-Temse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
KAA Gent II's recent record stands at 5W 3D 6L from 14 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for KAA Gent II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lokeren-Temse, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 6L across 14 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-D-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Lokeren-Temse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: KAA Gent II on 1.29 PPG, Lokeren-Temse on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, KAA Gent II have managed 1W 3D 3L from 7 games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.29 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Lokeren-Temse's away record stands at 2W 1D 4L across 7 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
KAA Gent II are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Lokeren-Temse are on 1.29 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lokeren-Temse in 64%.
Defensively: KAA Gent II have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KAA Gent II
Blended
Lokeren-Temse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KAA Gent II and Lokeren-Temse in coming into this match?
KAA Gent II have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 games (1.29 PPG), while Lokeren-Temse have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KAA Gent II at home or Lokeren-Temse away?
Lokeren-Temse's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KAA Gent II at home: 0.86 PPG; Lokeren-Temse away: 1.00 PPG.
Have KAA Gent II or Lokeren-Temse been keeping clean sheets recently?
KAA Gent II have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Lokeren-Temse in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
KAA Gent II
0
Draws
2
Lokeren-Temse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KAA Gent II and Lokeren-Temse?
From 2 meetings on record, KAA Gent II have won 0, Lokeren-Temse have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did KAA Gent II and Lokeren-Temse last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Lokeren-Temse 4-1 KAA Gent II.
Who has won more matches between KAA Gent II and Lokeren-Temse?
Lokeren-Temse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
KAA Gent II see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Lokeren-Temse see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KAA Gent II 43%, Lokeren-Temse 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (KAA Gent II) and 43% (Lokeren-Temse).
On the defensive side: KAA Gent II have failed to score in 57% of games; Lokeren-Temse in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KAA Gent II home games / Lokeren-Temse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KAA Gent II play Lokeren-Temse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of KAA Gent II's recent matches and 57% of Lokeren-Temse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KAA Gent II vs Lokeren-Temse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of KAA Gent II's recent games and 43% of Lokeren-Temse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Lokeren-Temse cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over KAA Gent II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lokeren-Temse beat KAA Gent II 1-3 at Planet Group Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KAA Gent II 0.90 xG and Lokeren-Temse 1.16 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lokeren-Temse outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KAA Gent II attack 0.72 / defence 1.02 against Lokeren-Temse attack 0.85 / defence 0.96, drawn from 14/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KAA Gent II 28% | Draw 31% | Lokeren-Temse 41%, with Lokeren-Temse to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KAA Gent II 43%, Lokeren-Temse 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KAA Gent II's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KAA Gent II 1.29 PPG, Lokeren-Temse 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lokeren-Temse win broke the near-deadlock. KAA Gent II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lokeren-Temse (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.