Francs Borains 1-3 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zulte Waregem at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Francs Borains vs Zulte Waregem encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Francs Borains host Zulte Waregem at Stade Robert Urbain in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 March 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Francs Borains have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Francs Borains's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stade Robert Urbain this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Zulte Waregem — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zulte Waregem's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Zulte Waregem's 1.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Francs Borains's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Francs Borains register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Zulte Waregem in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Francs Borains, 0 for Zulte Waregem and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Francs Borains trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Zulte Waregem trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 54% versus Zulte Waregem 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 64% | Zulte Waregem 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 1.02 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.845 / defence 1.105 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.081 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.355. Data: 55 Francs Borains games / 54 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Francs Borains 24% | Draw 25% | Zulte Waregem 51%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Zulte Waregem 1.96. Zulte Waregem hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Francs Borains dominate the H2H record, yet Zulte Waregem are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Zulte Waregem as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zulte Waregem offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Francs Borains 70% | Zulte Waregem 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Francs Borains vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade Robert Urbain • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Mar 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Francs Borains 24% | Draw 25% | Zulte Waregem 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Francs Borains 1.02 / Zulte Waregem 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Francs Borains attack 0.845 / def 1.105 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.081 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Francs Borains xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Zulte Waregem xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Francs Borains vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
Francs Borains vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 March 2025 at Stade Robert Urbain.
What was the final score in Francs Borains vs Zulte Waregem?
Francs Borains 1 - 3 Zulte Waregem.
Where is Francs Borains vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Urbain.
What competition is Francs Borains vs Zulte Waregem part of?
Francs Borains vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Francs Borains vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives Francs Borains a 24% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Francs Borains and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will Francs Borains vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Zulte Waregem?
Record (3 meetings): Francs Borains 2W | Draws 1 | Zulte Waregem 0W.
What form are Francs Borains and Zulte Waregem in?
Francs Borains (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Francs Borains's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Zulte Waregem's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Zulte Waregem's attack versus Francs Borains's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
24%
4.20
25%
4.03
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
2.64
1.62
Zulte Waregem xG
4.20
24%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
5%
21.21
19%
5.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Francs Borains and 1.62 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Francs Borains have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 17W 9D 29L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zulte Waregem's form line: 30W 12D 13L from 55 games, 1.85 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-L. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Zulte Waregem are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Francs Borains.
Venue Form
On home soil, Francs Borains have posted 0.96 PPG from 27 outings (7W 5D 15L).
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 16W 6D 5L from 27 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zulte Waregem come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Francs Borains are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.82 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem in 60%.
Last 55 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Francs Borains
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Francs Borains and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
Francs Borains have gone 17W 9D 29L in their last 55 games (1.09 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 30W 12D 13L in their last 55 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Francs Borains at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Zulte Waregem's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Francs Borains at home: 0.96 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Francs Borains's record when hosting Zulte Waregem specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Francs Borains
1
Draws
1
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Zulte Waregem?
From 4 meetings on record, Francs Borains have won 2, Zulte Waregem have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Francs Borains and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Francs Borains 1-3 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Francs Borains and Zulte Waregem?
Francs Borains have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Zulte Waregem see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Francs Borains 56%, Zulte Waregem 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Francs Borains and 63% for Zulte Waregem. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zulte Waregem in 37%; Francs Borains have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Francs Borains home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Francs Borains play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Francs Borains's games and 59% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Francs Borains vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Francs Borains's matches and 63% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do Francs Borains and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
Francs Borains have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zulte Waregem cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Francs Borains.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat Francs Borains 1-3 at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 26, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 1.02 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.62 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Zulte Waregem outscored their 1.62 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.84 / defence 1.10 against Zulte Waregem attack 1.08 / defence 0.88, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 24% | Draw 25% | Zulte Waregem 51%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 64%, Zulte Waregem 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Francs Borains's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Francs Borains (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.