Francs Borains 1-3 Lommel United – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Lommel United at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Francs Borains face Lommel United.

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Full Analysis

Stade Robert Urbain plays host to Francs Borains versus Lommel United in Challenger Pro League (matchday 4). Kick-off: Saturday 14 September 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Francs Borains have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Francs Borains have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Lommel United (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Lommel United away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Francs Borains, 2 for Lommel United and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 10 Mar 2024, ended Francs Borains 1–2 Lommel United — a Lommel United win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Francs Borains goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Lommel United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 52% versus Lommel United 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 61% | Lommel United 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 1.18 xG and Lommel United 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.860 / defence 1.013 | Lommel United attack 1.030 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.426. Data: built from Francs Borains's last 33 games and Lommel United's last 33. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Francs Borains 30% | Draw 26% | Lommel United 44%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 3.33 | Draw 3.90 | Lommel United 2.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Lommel United at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lommel United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Francs Borains's last 10 home games and Lommel United's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Francs Borains 50% (last 10 home games) | Lommel United 80% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Francs Borains 33 games, Lommel United 33) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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