Francs Borains 2-5 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KRC Genk II at 44%, yet in-form Francs Borains provide a compelling counter-argument — this Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
KRC Genk II make the trip to Stade Robert Urbain to face Francs Borains in Challenger Pro League (matchday 2). The match kicks off on Sunday 20 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Francs Borains have collected 3.00 PPG across their last 1 games: 1W 0D 0L. Last five: W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
KRC Genk II's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, KRC Genk II have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 2.40 in Francs Borains's favour (3.00 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 1.20 xG and KRC Genk II 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.884 / defence 1.150 | KRC Genk II attack 0.981 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.317. Data: built from Francs Borains's last 1 games and KRC Genk II's last 23. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Francs Borains 31% | Draw 26% | KRC Genk II 44%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 3.28 | Draw 3.90 | KRC Genk II 2.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, KRC Genk II are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Francs Borains (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KRC Genk II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Francs Borains's last 1 games and KRC Genk II's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's sample (Francs Borains 1 games, KRC Genk II 23) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 2 | Venue: Stade Robert Urbain • Kick-off: Sunday 20 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Francs Borains 31% | Draw 26% | KRC Genk II 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Francs Borains 1.20 / KRC Genk II 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Francs Borains attack 0.884 / def 1.150 | KRC Genk II attack 0.981 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.315 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: KRC Genk II (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Francs Borains xG
Expected Goals
1.49
KRC Genk II xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II FAQs
What time does Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II kick off?
Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Stade Robert Urbain.
What was the final score in Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II?
Francs Borains 2 - 5 KRC Genk II.
Where is Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Urbain.
What competition is Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II part of?
Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 2) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives Francs Borains a 31% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making KRC Genk II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Francs Borains and KRC Genk II will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Francs Borains's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against KRC Genk II's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — KRC Genk II's attack (0.98x) against Francs Borains's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from Francs Borains's last 1 games and KRC Genk II's last 23, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KRC Genk II Win
31%
3.28
26%
3.90
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
2.68
1.49
KRC Genk II xG
3.28
31%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
7%
14.46
13%
7.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.2 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Francs Borains and 1.49 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Francs Borains's recent record stands at 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W in the last five.
KRC Genk II, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 0L across 1 games — 3.00 PPG, with W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 3.00 PPG for Francs Borains against 3.00 for KRC Genk II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Francs Borains are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Francs Borains's scoring rate against KRC Genk II's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Francs Borains have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; KRC Genk II in 0%.
Defensively: KRC Genk II in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Francs Borains
Early Season
KRC Genk II
Early Season
Francs Borains (Home) vs KRC Genk II (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Francs Borains
Early Season
KRC Genk II
Early Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
❓ Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II Form FAQs
What form are Francs Borains and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
Francs Borains have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Francs Borains or KRC Genk II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Francs Borains have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, KRC Genk II in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KRC Genk II won Francs Borains 2-5 KRC Genk II on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Francs Borains have gone 0W 2D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against KRC Genk II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Francs Borains
3
Draws
2
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and KRC Genk II?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Francs Borains have won 1, KRC Genk II have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Francs Borains and KRC Genk II last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: Francs Borains 2-2 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between Francs Borains and KRC Genk II?
KRC Genk II have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Francs Borains home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Francs Borains and KRC Genk II matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Francs Borains's recent matches and 0% of KRC Genk II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Francs Borains and KRC Genk II matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Francs Borains's recent games and 0% of KRC Genk II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Francs Borains and KRC Genk II matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Francs Borains's recent matches and 100% of KRC Genk II's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant KRC Genk II run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Francs Borains.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KRC Genk II beat Francs Borains 2-5 at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 2, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 1.20 xG and KRC Genk II 1.49 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Francs Borains beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. KRC Genk II outscored their 1.49 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.88 / defence 1.15 against KRC Genk II attack 0.98 / defence 1.03, drawn from 1/23 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 31% | Draw 26% | KRC Genk II 44%, with KRC Genk II to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 100%, KRC Genk II 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Francs Borains 3.00 PPG, KRC Genk II 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KRC Genk II win broke the near-deadlock. Francs Borains managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. KRC Genk II scored 5 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.