Francs Borains vs Deinze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deinze at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Francs Borains vs Deinze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Francs Borains host Deinze at Stade Robert Urbain in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 March 2025 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Francs Borains stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Robert Urbain, Francs Borains have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Deinze — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Deinze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Deinze have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Francs Borains 1.10 PPG, Deinze 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Francs Borains register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Deinze in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Francs Borains, 1 for Deinze and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 3–0 with Francs Borains winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Francs Borains in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Deinze in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 58% versus Deinze 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 67% | Deinze 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 1.29 xG and Deinze 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.853 / defence 1.203 | Deinze attack 0.952 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.338. Data: 56 Francs Borains games / 44 Deinze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Francs Borains 32% | Draw 25% | Deinze 43%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Deinze 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Deinze are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deinze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Francs Borains 70% | Deinze 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Francs Borains vs Deinze | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Robert Urbain • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Mar 2025, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Francs Borains 32% | Draw 25% | Deinze 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Francs Borains 1.29 / Deinze 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Francs Borains attack 0.853 / def 1.203 | Deinze attack 0.952 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Deinze (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Francs Borains xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Deinze xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Francs Borains vs Deinze kick off?
Francs Borains vs Deinze kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Stade Robert Urbain.
Where is Francs Borains vs Deinze being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Urbain.
What competition is Francs Borains vs Deinze part of?
Francs Borains vs Deinze is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Francs Borains vs Deinze?
Our statistical model gives Francs Borains a 32% chance of winning, Deinze a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs Deinze?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Francs Borains and Deinze will score (BTTS).
Will Francs Borains vs Deinze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Deinze?
Record (3 meetings): Francs Borains 2W | Draws 0 | Deinze 1W.
What form are Francs Borains and Deinze in?
Francs Borains (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Deinze (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Francs Borains's attack rating (0.85) and Deinze's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Deinze's attack versus Francs Borains's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
32%
3.11
25%
4.01
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
2.83
1.53
Deinze xG
3.11
32%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
7%
14.40
12%
8.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.1 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs Deinze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and Deinze expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Francs Borains and 1.53 for Deinze, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs Deinze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Francs Borains have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 14W 9D 25L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Deinze's form line: 23W 9D 16L from 48 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Deinze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Deinze are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Francs Borains.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Francs Borains have posted 0.83 PPG from 24 outings (5W 5D 14L).
On the road, Deinze have gone 10W 4D 10L from 24 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deinze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Francs Borains are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Deinze are on 1.54 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Francs Borains
Blended
Deinze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Francs Borains and Deinze in coming into this match?
Francs Borains have gone 14W 9D 25L in their last 48 games (1.06 PPG), while Deinze have gone 23W 9D 16L in their last 48 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Francs Borains at home or Deinze away?
Deinze's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Francs Borains at home: 0.83 PPG; Deinze away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Francs Borains and Deinze runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Francs Borains go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Nov 2024, when Francs Borains won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Francs Borains
0
Draws
1
Deinze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Deinze?
From 3 meetings on record, Francs Borains have won 2, Deinze have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Francs Borains and Deinze last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2024, when Deinze 0-3 Francs Borains.
Who has won more matches between Francs Borains and Deinze?
Francs Borains have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Francs Borains 62%, Deinze 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Francs Borains and 58% for Deinze. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Francs Borains have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Francs Borains home games / Deinze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Francs Borains play Deinze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Francs Borains's games and 54% of Deinze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Francs Borains vs Deinze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Francs Borains's matches and 58% of Deinze's.
Do Francs Borains and Deinze tend to score early?
Francs Borains have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Deinze in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Francs Borains's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 27, as Francs Borains and Deinze drew 0-0 in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 1.29 xG and Deinze 1.53 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Francs Borains fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Deinze landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.85 / defence 1.20 against Deinze attack 0.95 / defence 1.10, drawn from 56/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 32% | Draw 25% | Deinze 43%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 67%, Deinze 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Francs Borains's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Deinze's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Deinze arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Francs Borains (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Deinze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.