Excelsior Virton 0-2 Deinze – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Deinze (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Excelsior Virton face Deinze.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Deinze travel to Stade Yvan Georges to take on Excelsior Virton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 February 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Excelsior Virton stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior Virton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Yvan Georges, Excelsior Virton have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Excelsior Virton are significantly better at Stade Yvan Georges than their overall form suggests.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Deinze have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Deinze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deinze's away record: 1W 6D 3L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Deinze's 1.40 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Excelsior Virton's 0.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Excelsior Virton, 2 for Deinze and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2022, ended 1–2 with Deinze winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Excelsior Virton in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Deinze in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior Virton 48% versus Deinze 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior Virton 52% | Deinze 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior Virton 0.87 xG and Deinze 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior Virton attack 0.670 / defence 1.465 | Deinze attack 0.885 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.069 / away 1.318. Excelsior Virton's attack strength of 0.670 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Deinze bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Excelsior Virton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Excelsior Virton games / 21 Deinze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior Virton 19% | Draw 24% | Deinze 57%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior Virton 5.26 | Draw 4.17 | Deinze 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Deinze (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Deinze at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Excelsior Virton 40% | Deinze 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior Virton vs Deinze | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Yvan Georges • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior Virton 19% | Draw 24% | Deinze 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 47% | xG Excelsior Virton 0.87 / Deinze 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior Virton attack 0.670 / def 1.465 | Deinze attack 0.885 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.069 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Deinze (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Excelsior Virton xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Deinze xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior Virton vs Deinze kick off?
Excelsior Virton vs Deinze kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Stade Yvan Georges.
What was the final score in Excelsior Virton vs Deinze?
Excelsior Virton 0 - 2 Deinze.
Where is Excelsior Virton vs Deinze being played?
The match is being played at Stade Yvan Georges.
What competition is Excelsior Virton vs Deinze part of?
Excelsior Virton vs Deinze is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior Virton vs Deinze?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior Virton a 19% chance of winning, Deinze a 57% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior Virton vs Deinze?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Excelsior Virton and Deinze will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior Virton vs Deinze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior Virton and Deinze?
Record (3 meetings): Excelsior Virton 0W | Draws 1 | Deinze 2W.
What form are Excelsior Virton and Deinze in?
Excelsior Virton (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Deinze (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Excelsior Virton's attack rating (0.67) and Deinze's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Deinze's attack versus Excelsior Virton's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-2 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
19%
5.29
24%
4.20
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Excelsior Virton xG
Total xG
2.58
1.71
Deinze xG
5.29
19%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
18%
5.52
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
3%
29.21
24%
4.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 13.0 | 11.1 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior Virton vs Deinze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Excelsior Virton and Deinze expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Excelsior Virton and 1.71 for Deinze, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior Virton vs Deinze?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Excelsior Virton come into this having played 21 games, going 3W 5D 13L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Excelsior Virton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Deinze sit at 1.38 PPG from 21 outings (6W 11D 4L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Deinze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Deinze carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Excelsior Virton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Excelsior Virton's home form reads 2W 2D 6L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Deinze have taken 0.90 points per game from 10 outings (1W 6D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Deinze's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Excelsior Virton are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Deinze are on 1.62 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deinze in 71%.
Last 21 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior Virton
Blended
Deinze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior Virton and Deinze in coming into this match?
Excelsior Virton have gone 3W 5D 13L in their last 21 games (0.67 PPG), while Deinze have gone 6W 11D 4L in their last 21 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior Virton at home or Deinze away?
Deinze's away record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior Virton at home: 0.80 PPG; Deinze away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Deinze have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Dec 2021, when Deinze won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Excelsior Virton's record when hosting Deinze specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Excelsior Virton
2
Draws
6
Deinze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior Virton and Deinze?
From 8 meetings on record, Excelsior Virton have won 0, Deinze have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior Virton and Deinze last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Deinze 3-1 Excelsior Virton.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior Virton and Deinze?
Deinze have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Excelsior Virton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior Virton 40%, Deinze 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Excelsior Virton) and 60% (Deinze). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior Virton have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior Virton home games / Deinze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior Virton play Deinze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Excelsior Virton's games and 70% of Deinze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior Virton vs Deinze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Excelsior Virton's matches and 60% of Deinze's.
Do Excelsior Virton and Deinze tend to score early?
Excelsior Virton have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Deinze in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Deinze cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Excelsior Virton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deinze beat Excelsior Virton 0-2 at Stade Yvan Georges, Regular Season - 22, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior Virton 0.87 xG and Deinze 1.71 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Excelsior Virton fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior Virton attack 0.67 / defence 1.47 against Deinze attack 0.89 / defence 1.21, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior Virton 19% | Draw 24% | Deinze 57%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior Virton 52%, Deinze 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior Virton's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 52% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Deinze's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Deinze arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.67. Form held, and they took the win. Deinze (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.