Excelsior Virton 1-1 Deinze – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Deinze at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior Virton vs Deinze encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Deinze travel to Stade Yvan Georges to take on Excelsior Virton. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 September 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Excelsior Virton stand at 1W 2D 2L from 5 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Excelsior Virton have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Deinze have recorded 2W 3D 0L from 5 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Deinze have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Deinze's away record: 1W 2D 0L from 3 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Deinze's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Excelsior Virton's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Excelsior Virton in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Deinze in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior Virton 40% and Deinze 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Excelsior Virton 20% | Deinze 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior Virton 1.25 xG and Deinze 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior Virton attack 0.948 / defence 1.137 | Deinze attack 0.978 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.112 / away 1.493. Data: 5 Excelsior Virton games / 5 Deinze games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Excelsior Virton 26% | Draw 31% | Deinze 44%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior Virton 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Deinze 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.25 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Deinze at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deinze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Excelsior Virton 40% | Deinze 67%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (5 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior Virton vs Deinze | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Yvan Georges • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior Virton 26% | Draw 31% | Deinze 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Excelsior Virton 1.25 / Deinze 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior Virton attack 0.948 / def 1.137 | Deinze attack 0.978 / def 1.190 | league avg home 1.112 / away 1.493 • Poisson stance: Deinze (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Excelsior Virton xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Deinze xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior Virton vs Deinze kick off?
Excelsior Virton vs Deinze kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Stade Yvan Georges.
What was the final score in Excelsior Virton vs Deinze?
Excelsior Virton 1 - 1 Deinze.
Where is Excelsior Virton vs Deinze being played?
The match is being played at Stade Yvan Georges.
What competition is Excelsior Virton vs Deinze part of?
Excelsior Virton vs Deinze is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior Virton vs Deinze?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior Virton a 26% chance of winning, Deinze a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior Virton vs Deinze?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Excelsior Virton and Deinze will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior Virton vs Deinze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior Virton and Deinze?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Excelsior Virton and Deinze in?
Excelsior Virton (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Deinze (all comps): 2W-3D-0L in 5 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Excelsior Virton's attack rating (0.95) and Deinze's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Deinze's attack versus Excelsior Virton's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (5/5 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
26%
3.91
31%
3.23
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Excelsior Virton xG
Total xG
2.91
1.66
Deinze xG
3.91
26%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
19%
5.26
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
5%
20.58
12%
8.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.0 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior Virton vs Deinze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Excelsior Virton and Deinze expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Excelsior Virton and 1.66 for Deinze, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior Virton vs Deinze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Excelsior Virton come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 2D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Excelsior Virton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Deinze sit at 1.80 PPG from 5 outings (2W 3D 0L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Deinze, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Deinze carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Excelsior Virton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Excelsior Virton are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Deinze are on 2.00 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deinze in 80%.
Last 5 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior Virton
Early Season
Deinze
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior Virton and Deinze in coming into this match?
Excelsior Virton have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 games (1.00 PPG), while Deinze have gone 2W 3D 0L in their last 5 (1.80 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Deinze have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Dec 2021, when Deinze won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Excelsior Virton's record when hosting Deinze specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Excelsior Virton
2
Draws
6
Deinze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior Virton and Deinze?
From 8 meetings on record, Excelsior Virton have won 0, Deinze have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior Virton and Deinze last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Deinze 3-1 Excelsior Virton.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior Virton and Deinze?
Deinze have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Excelsior Virton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior Virton 40%, Deinze 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Excelsior Virton) and 60% (Deinze).
On the defensive side: Excelsior Virton have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior Virton home games / Deinze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior Virton play Deinze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Excelsior Virton's games and 80% of Deinze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior Virton vs Deinze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Excelsior Virton's recent games and 60% of Deinze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Excelsior Virton and Deinze tend to score early?
Excelsior Virton have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Deinze in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Excelsior Virton and Deinze share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Yvan Georges, Regular Season - 6, as Excelsior Virton and Deinze drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior Virton 1.25 xG and Deinze 1.66 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior Virton attack 0.95 / defence 1.14 against Deinze attack 0.98 / defence 1.19, drawn from 5/5 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior Virton 26% | Draw 31% | Deinze 44%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior Virton 20%, Deinze 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior Virton's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Deinze's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Deinze arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Deinze managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.