Dender 2-0 Francs Borains – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dender at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dender vs Francs Borains encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dender and Francs Borains meet at DENDER Football Complex in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 5 December 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Dender (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dender, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at DENDER Football Complex, Dender have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Francs Borains's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Francs Borains have gone 1W 0D 5L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Dender. A 0.90 PPG lead over Francs Borains (1.60 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Dender half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Francs Borains half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dender 77% versus Francs Borains 31%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dender 46% | Francs Borains 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dender 1.83 xG and Francs Borains 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dender attack 1.170 / defence 0.968 | Francs Borains attack 0.569 / defence 1.345. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.551. Francs Borains bring a strong defensive rating of 1.345 — this is suppressing Dender's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Dender games / 13 Francs Borains games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dender 61% | Draw 22% | Francs Borains 17%. Fair-value odds: Dender 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Francs Borains 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Dender (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dender are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Dender 60% | Francs Borains 33%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dender vs Francs Borains | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: DENDER Football Complex • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dender 61% | Draw 22% | Francs Borains 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 48% | xG Dender 1.83 / Francs Borains 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Dender attack 1.170 / def 0.968 | Francs Borains attack 0.569 / def 1.345 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.551 • Poisson stance: Dender (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Dender xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Francs Borains xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dender vs Francs Borains kick off?
Dender vs Francs Borains kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 5 December 2023 at DENDER Football Complex.
What was the final score in Dender vs Francs Borains?
Dender 2 - 0 Francs Borains.
Where is Dender vs Francs Borains being played?
The match is being played at DENDER Football Complex.
What competition is Dender vs Francs Borains part of?
Dender vs Francs Borains is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Dender vs Francs Borains?
Our statistical model gives Dender a 61% chance of winning, Francs Borains a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Dender the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dender vs Francs Borains?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Dender and Francs Borains will score (BTTS).
Will Dender vs Francs Borains have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Francs Borains?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dender and Francs Borains in?
Dender (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Francs Borains (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dender's attack rating (1.17) and Francs Borains's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Francs Borains's attack (0.57x) against Dender's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 35/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dender Win
61%
1.65
22%
4.46
17%
5.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Dender xG
Total xG
2.69
0.85
Francs Borains xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
5.88
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
26%
3.87
3%
36.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 10.6 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dender vs Francs Borains?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Dender and Francs Borains expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Dender and 0.85 for Francs Borains, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Dender vs Francs Borains?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dender come into this having played 13 games, going 5W 5D 3L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L. The sample for Dender is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Francs Borains sit at 1.00 PPG from 13 outings (4W 1D 8L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dender carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Francs Borains — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Dender's home form reads 2W 2D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Francs Borains have taken 0.50 points per game from 6 outings (1W 0D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Francs Borains's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dender come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dender are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Francs Borains are on 0.85 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dender have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dender
Blended
Francs Borains
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dender and Francs Borains in coming into this match?
Dender have gone 5W 5D 3L in their last 13 games (1.54 PPG), while Francs Borains have gone 4W 1D 8L in their last 13 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dender at home or Francs Borains away?
Dender's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dender at home: 1.33 PPG; Francs Borains away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Dender
0
Draws
0
Francs Borains
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Francs Borains?
From 2 meetings on record, Dender have won 2, Francs Borains have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dender and Francs Borains last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2024, when Francs Borains 0-3 Dender.
Who has won more matches between Dender and Francs Borains?
Dender have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dender 83%, Francs Borains 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Dender and 67% for Francs Borains. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Francs Borains in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dender home games / Francs Borains away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dender play Francs Borains?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Dender's games and 33% of Francs Borains's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dender vs Francs Borains usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Dender's matches and 67% of Francs Borains's.
Do Dender and Francs Borains tend to score early?
Dender have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Francs Borains in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dender cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Francs Borains.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dender beat Francs Borains 2-0 at DENDER Football Complex, Regular Season - 14, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 1.83 xG and Francs Borains 0.85 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Francs Borains landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 1.17 / defence 0.97 against Francs Borains attack 0.57 / defence 1.34, drawn from 35/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dender 61% | Draw 22% | Francs Borains 17%, with Dender to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 46%, Francs Borains 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dender's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Francs Borains's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Dender arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dender (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.