Deinze 0-0 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deinze at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Deinze face SK Beveren.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SK Beveren make the trip to Dakota Arena to face Deinze in Challenger Pro League (matchday 7). The match kicks off on Friday 29 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Deinze (all games): 6W 0D 4L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Deinze have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SK Beveren's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SK Beveren's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Deinze against 1.50 for SK Beveren. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Deinze, 3 for SK Beveren and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 4 Dec 2022, ended Deinze 1–4 SK Beveren — a SK Beveren win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Deinze — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games).
SK Beveren — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deinze 60% versus SK Beveren 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deinze 60% | SK Beveren 66%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Deinze surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while SK Beveren have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deinze 1.35 xG and SK Beveren 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deinze attack 1.084 / defence 0.806 | SK Beveren attack 0.733 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.379. SK Beveren's attack rating of 0.733 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Data: built from Deinze's last 28 games and SK Beveren's last 28.
Result probabilities: Deinze 49% | Draw 28% | SK Beveren 23%. Fair-value odds: Deinze 2.03 | Draw 3.56 | SK Beveren 4.42. Deinze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Deinze are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Deinze if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Deinze's last 10 home games and SK Beveren's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 6 H2H matches point the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 59%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Deinze 70% (last 10 home games) | SK Beveren 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deinze vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 7 | Venue: Dakota Arena • Kick-off: Friday 29 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deinze 49% | Draw 28% | SK Beveren 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Deinze 1.35 / SK Beveren 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Deinze attack 1.084 / def 0.806 | SK Beveren attack 0.733 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Deinze (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Deinze xG
Expected Goals
0.81
SK Beveren xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Deinze vs SK Beveren FAQs
What time does Deinze vs SK Beveren kick off?
Deinze vs SK Beveren kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 29 September 2023 at Dakota Arena.
What was the final score in Deinze vs SK Beveren?
Deinze 0 - 0 SK Beveren.
Where is Deinze vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Dakota Arena.
What competition is Deinze vs SK Beveren part of?
Deinze vs SK Beveren is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 7) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Deinze vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives Deinze a 49% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deinze vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Deinze and SK Beveren will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Deinze vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Deinze's attack rating (1.08) and SK Beveren's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SK Beveren's attack (0.73x) against Deinze's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from Deinze's last 28 games and SK Beveren's last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
49%
2.03
28%
3.56
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Deinze xG
Total xG
2.16
0.81
SK Beveren xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
22%
4.58
6%
16.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 12.6 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Deinze vs SK Beveren Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Deinze vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Deinze and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Deinze and 0.81 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Deinze vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Deinze have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 18W 4D 16L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
SK Beveren's form line: 21W 10D 7L from 38 games, 1.92 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Deinze against 1.92 for SK Beveren. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Deinze have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 19 home games (12W 2D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Deinze are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 7W 7D 5L from their last 19 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SK Beveren's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deinze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Deinze are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 2.13 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deinze have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deinze
Early Season
SK Beveren
Early Season
Deinze (Home) vs SK Beveren (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Deinze
Early Season
SK Beveren
Early Season
❓ Deinze vs SK Beveren Form FAQs
What form are Deinze and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
Deinze have gone 18W 4D 16L in their last 38 games (1.53 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 21W 10D 7L in their last 38 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deinze at home or SK Beveren away?
Deinze's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deinze at home: 2.00 PPG; SK Beveren away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Deinze or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
Deinze have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Deinze and SK Beveren, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 3 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SK Beveren won SK Beveren 4-1 Deinze on 12 Dec 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Deinze have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SK Beveren — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Deinze
4
Draws
3
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Deinze vs SK Beveren H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and SK Beveren?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Deinze have won 2, SK Beveren have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Deinze and SK Beveren last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 November 2024: Deinze 3-1 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between Deinze and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deinze 74%, SK Beveren 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Deinze and 63% for SK Beveren. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren in 32%; SK Beveren in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deinze home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Deinze vs SK Beveren Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Deinze and SK Beveren matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Deinze's games and 53% of SK Beveren's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Deinze and SK Beveren matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Deinze's matches and 63% of SK Beveren's.
Do Deinze and SK Beveren matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Deinze's recent matches and 74% of SK Beveren's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Deinze's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deinze and SK Beveren finished level at 0-0 at Dakota Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deinze 1.35 xG and SK Beveren 0.81 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Deinze fell 1.3 short of their projected output. SK Beveren landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deinze attack 1.08 / defence 0.81 against SK Beveren attack 0.73 / defence 0.89, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deinze 49% | Draw 28% | SK Beveren 23%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deinze 60%, SK Beveren 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deinze's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
SK Beveren's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Deinze 1.53 PPG, SK Beveren 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Deinze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. SK Beveren (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.