WSG Wattens 0-0 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tivoli Stadion Tirol plays host to WSG Wattens versus TSV Hartberg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 9 February 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
WSG Wattens have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, WSG Wattens have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tivoli Stadion Tirol. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
TSV Hartberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for WSG Wattens, 1.40 for TSV Hartberg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — WSG Wattens lead 1W to 3W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with TSV Hartberg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
TSV Hartberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 44% versus TSV Hartberg 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 48% | TSV Hartberg 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.05 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.676 / defence 0.952 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.975 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.281. WSG Wattens's attack strength of 0.676 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 WSG Wattens games / 38 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 32% | Draw 30% | TSV Hartberg 38%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | TSV Hartberg 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 20% | TSV Hartberg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Feb 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 32% | Draw 30% | TSV Hartberg 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG WSG Wattens 1.05 / TSV Hartberg 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.676 / def 0.952 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.975 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.19
TSV Hartberg xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
WSG Wattens 0 - 0 TSV Hartberg.
Where is WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg part of?
WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 32% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg?
Record (4 meetings): WSG Wattens 1W | Draws 0 | TSV Hartberg 3W.
What form are WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
WSG Wattens's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (0.97x) against WSG Wattens's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
32%
3.16
30%
3.34
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.24
1.19
TSV Hartberg xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
10%
10.38
13%
7.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 12.6 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.19 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, WSG Wattens have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 11W 9D 28L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
TSV Hartberg's form line: 17W 12D 19L from 48 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, TSV Hartberg are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against WSG Wattens.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, WSG Wattens have posted 0.92 PPG from 24 outings (5W 7D 12L).
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 8W 6D 10L from 24 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
WSG Wattens are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.35 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 11W 9D 28L in their last 48 games (0.88 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 17W 12D 19L in their last 48 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or TSV Hartberg away?
TSV Hartberg's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 0.92 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: TSV Hartberg won 5-0 on 6 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, WSG Wattens have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
WSG Wattens
2
Draws
6
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 2, TSV Hartberg have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when WSG Wattens 2-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 42%, TSV Hartberg 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (WSG Wattens) and 67% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of WSG Wattens's recent matches and 58% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 67% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at WSG Wattens's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg finished level at 0-0 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.05 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.19 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. WSG Wattens fell 1.1 short of their projected output. TSV Hartberg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.68 / defence 0.95 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.97 / defence 1.03, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 32% | Draw 30% | TSV Hartberg 38%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 48%, TSV Hartberg 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, TSV Hartberg arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.